TSLA: Buy It Now

OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #501
Everyone here HAD to know to buy yesterday. I'd like to know who capitalized on the split.
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #502
Say someone had 50k to dump in tesla, wait or do it now. Weeks ago is probably my answer ..
Yesterday would be my answer... same thing I've been saying since the split announcement. Short of that, it's a tough call. Almost certainly before the election results... the problem is there is an "artificial" high on the stock right now, which is bound to settle out, but will that settle occur before the election results? It is almost a sure Trump reelection, which will benefit the market, especially TSLA. I already have another buy order at $475. Not sure if it will dip that low in September, if not, it'll be close.
 

Vegas12

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 10, 2005
Messages
16,193
Everyone here HAD to know to buy yesterday. I'd like to know who capitalized on the split.

Almost makes you want to believe in conspiracy theories:


"Twitter users also reported glitches with E-Trade, Schwab, Vanguard and TD Ameritrade."
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #507
Almost makes you want to believe in conspiracy theories: "Twitter users also reported glitches with E-Trade, Schwab, Vanguard and TD Ameritrade."
Funny you bring that up... I had a buy order in eTrade for 200 shares, but oddly enough it only processed 100. I was up yesterday morning to ensure there would be no issues and noticed the discrepancy. I had to place another order to get the additional shares.

I thought that was a bit odd, but assumed it had something to do with availability or timing. Maybe sun spots or aliens?
 

Vegas12

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 10, 2005
Messages
16,193
Funny you bring that up... I had a buy order in eTrade for 200 shares, but oddly enough it only processed 100. I was up yesterday morning to ensure there would be no issues and noticed the discrepancy. I had to place another order to get the additional shares.

I thought that was a bit odd, but assumed it had something to do with availability or timing. Maybe sun spots or aliens?

It prevented a few people I know from jumping in at the split.....my son wanted to buy more shares but was frozen out.
 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
Bingo. Hedging their bets against the possible turn of the economy. I'm not afraid of diluting the stock, just part of the necessary game. Tesla still has some challenges ahead of them in 2021. They may be ahead of the EV game now, this is no time to sit back and revel in their laurels. They've covered nearly all of the automobile categories... expect for arguably the biggest: pickup trucks. The race to a viable EV truck is conceptually neck-in-neck. Rivian, Nikola, Ford, heck even Chevy, have trucks destined for a 2021 model launch. It'll be an exciting year in that market space...
This month (as you know, but some may not) has some big calendar events for TSLA. Either could be significant...in some direction..up or down.

The S&P 500, board of governors meets (22nd?..not sure), there is a high probability that Tesla will be a topic. If they are included in the S&P 500 This would likely produce a significant bump as there is a big group of investment banks that will be required to buy proportionate amounts of Tesla. These same companies can not hedge in advance. When Amazon was included in 2004 they were at $40(ish) a share? Currently at $3500. If you look at the percentage of institutional investors right now [tsla] already has more as a percentage than Ford does. These are the big guys who don't get mentioned in the news and are fine with it.

Battery day, Musk has dropped some hints here. The speculation is that they've got the "million mile" battery which for the EV industry, might just blow the lid off of things and make gas powered cars less competitive than EVs cost wise. I cant stress enough that this is a game changer. However, for grid power storage which few are watching, this is potentially a bigger play than the entire auto industry and could change the way all power companies operate. Everyone is always talking about cars with TSLA, cracks me up. Battery storage has a much higher potential impact for long term investor. The power storage market is the sleeping giant here.

As is the case stocks tend to gain more on rumor and sell on news. That said September could be a big move for Tesla, they might trade sideways for a little, I kinda hope they do actually, but you could see a 200 point swing here (please don't take that as fact).

Everyone likes to talk valuations. Fine I get it. The same thing was said about Apple and Amazon. Both had crazy valuations. They caught up. If you are determined to go that route I could give you my gardeners contact info.

For you guys watching the daily fluctuations you're gonna drive your selves insane. This is the most volatile large cap (yes its a large cap) currently listed. Unless you have a very, and I mean VERY sophisticated set of skills either buy it and park it, or pick something else. Ive said many times what Dameon does is probably above most peoples pay grade and you can watch but the end of the pool he's in has no life guard and is full of sharks.

If you want to invest, do just that. Only invest what you can lose with out altering your life style. On volatile securities the rule is keep both eyes open, but also don't get all jumpy...or the Dameon's of the world will take your money off the table. If Tesla is down its a good day to buy it if thats your intent.

I am currently watching AMZN as they are way past due for a split. Bezos fucking hates Musk and could do it out of spite. Full disclosure I am buying AMZN here and there though not today. The possibility of a split would be an upside surprise. As a business model mail order is going to become more likely under the new world order of staying home. And yes, thier valuation are wrong, thanks in advance to who ever is gonna point that out for me.

I'm also still a fan of SPYG which would likely also get the TSLA bump if the S&P includes them. I am not currently holding any but its a tremendous alternative to mutual funds which to me are a high tech Ponzi scheme. SPYG is also a dividend paying ETF so for all who like valuations and dividends there's that.
 

Stites

That's Mister Black Flag To You
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
11,030
Location
In my house
This month (as you know, but some may not) has some big calendar events for TSLA. Either could be significant...in some direction..up or down.

The S&P 500, board of governors meets (22nd?..not sure), there is a high probability that Tesla will be a topic. If they are included in the S&P 500 This would likely produce a significant bump as there is a big group of investment banks that will be required to buy proportionate amounts of Tesla. These same companies can not hedge in advance. When Amazon was included in 2004 they were at $40(ish) a share? Currently at $3500. If you look at the percentage of institutional investors right now [tsla] already have more as a percentage than Ford does. These are the big guys who don't get mentioned in the news and are fine with it.

Battery day, Musk has dropped some hints here. The speculation is that they've got the "million mile" battery which for the EV industry, might just blow the lid off of things and make gas powered cars less competitive than EVs cost wise. I cant stress enough that this is a game changer. However, for grid power storage which few are watching, this is potentially a bigger play than the entire auto industry and could change the way all power companies operate. Everyone is always talking about cars with TSLA, cracks me up. Battery storage has a much higher potential impact for long term investor. The power storage market is the sleeping giant here.

As is the case stocks tend to gain more on rumor and sell on news. That said September could be a big move for Tesla, they might trade sideways for a little, I kinda hope they do actually, but you could see a 200 point swing here (please don't take that as fact).

Everyone likes to talk valuations. Fine I get it. The same thing was said about Apple and Amazon. Both had crazy valuations. They caught up. If you are determined to go that route I could give you my gardeners contact info.

For you guys watching the daily fluctuations you're gonna drive your selves insane. This is the most volatile large cap (yes its a large cap) currently listed. Unless you have a very, and I mean VERY sophisticated set of skills either buy it and park it, or pick something else. Ive said many times what Dameon does is probably above most peoples pay grade and you can watch but the end of the pool he's in has no life guard and is full of sharks.

If you want to invest, do just that. Only invest what you can lose with out altering your life style. On volatile securities the rule is keep both eyes open, but also don't get all jumpy...or the Dameon's of the world will take your money off the table. If Tesla is down its a good day to buy it if thats your intent.

I am currently watching AMZN as they are way past due for a split. Bezos fucking hates Musk and could do it out of spite. Full disclosure I am buying AMZN here and there though not today. The possibility of a split would be an upside surprise. As a business model mail order is going to become more likely under the new world order of staying home. And yes, thier valuation are wrong, thanks in advance to who ever is gonna point that out for me.

I'm also still a fan of SPYG which would likely also get the TSLA bump if the S&P includes them. I am not currently holding any but its a tremendous alternative to mutual funds which to me are a high tech Ponzi scheme. SPYG is also a dividend paying ETF so for all who like valuations and dividends there's that.

Thanks Maui for typing all that out and for the insight into your vantage point. I appreciate you and Dameon sharing your knowledge.

Both my kiddo and I have SPYG. She bought at 10 years old and put a heavy chunk down (for a 10 year old) and she has seen 36% unrealized gains as of today. As I learn I am trying to teach her.

It’s really cool to hear her say dad can we check my stock? Then show it to her and see her smile. She doesn’t understand it yet but I am trying to educate her while she’s young.
 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
S&P500=500 companies (hence the name)

DOW Jones industrial is 30 companies.

the law of averages.
 

Snail

BAMF. No. Really. As BAMF as they get.
Joined
Jan 25, 2002
Messages
20,521
Location
Oregon
Appears there's some profit taking on tesla stock this morning.
 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
looks like it was the largest outside share holder rebalancing their portfolio as required because they became overweighted due to the steep increase in the stock price.
from CNBC
“The substantial increase in Tesla’s share price means that we needed to reduce our holding in order to reflect concentration guidelines which restrict the weight of a single stock in clients’ portfolios,” Baillie Gifford’s James Anderson said in a statement.
...and maybe some panic selling in the retail market
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #519
Expected behavior. I am a little surprised it's dipping so far below post-split value though.

Like you said... you'll kill yourself watching on an hourly/daily basis.

Just let this fervor play out.
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #520
Moving on... XPEV is something I've waited for an IPO on. They did last week and had a spike and a drop. I have a few bucks on them.
 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
yes, there's often some post split erratic behavior even in less volatile securities. It might also be some high speed trading, that steep drop was more than just a news blurb plus it was across the NASDAQ. I don't think that was a Tesla event.
 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
I'm not really the IPO guy. Theres great deals to be had but then there's also the Snap Chat versions. Also as a matter of principle, I'm not investing in Chinese companies (XPEV). There was a time a few years ago when I put some money in Alibaba, and I later changed that based on how the Chinese (Government) lack any ethics.
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #523
Also as a matter of principle, I'm not investing in Chinese companies (XPEV).
Yeah, that's something I struggle with. I've made my position on this fairly evident over the years... but I see this as pulling money out of China. A loan to a Chinese company that I profit on.

This extends to Chinese tools... Harbor Freight and such. They are obviously inferior quality products built with inferior quality materials and the result is a cheaply made item with a price to match. It would be hard to live a "China free" life. Current administration is trying to make that more of a viable reality. Once price leveling occurs between imported goods and domestic goods, the tide will turn.

I feel the same way about sending my money to ANY foreign country. Why should I buy products from Germany? The US should be getting my money. When people ask about my car; yeah, I tell them it's fast first, but quickly follow up with "completely designed and built in the US". Likely of an assortment of foreign parts.

I use the "US Only" link in Amazon and eBay searches every time. If I can't find what I'm looking for, I sometimes resort to worldwide. I'll take Japan over China any day. Sometimes I have no choice outside of just going without.
 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
yes it's difficult to hold hard on the Chinese deal. Every time I order something I cringe a little.
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #526
On a side note my kid is killing it with SPYG
It's good she's learning the positive aspects of the market. It is a good lesson. Not as good as the lessons I learned about the negative aspects of the market in my younger days. The market can be like a casino... the house always wins. You have to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.

SPYG has a 12 month low/high of $30/$54. They aren't a get rich quick fund (ETF), but fairly steady. She might drop a few bucks in IWF. Same idea, twice the data points with slightly bigger gains over the same time period. Laws of average and all. I don't play in managed funds just because I like to pick and choose. Funds are a nice way to start a college fund in and have a good return when it's ready to be used.
 

Stites

That's Mister Black Flag To You
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
11,030
Location
In my house
It's good she's learning the positive aspects of the market. It is a good lesson. Not as good as the lessons I learned about the negative aspects of the market in my younger days. The market can be like a casino... the house always wins. You have to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.

SPYG has a 12 month low/high of $30/$54. They aren't a get rich quick fund (ETF), but fairly steady. She might drop a few bucks in IWF. Same idea, twice the data points with slightly bigger gains over the same time period. Laws of average and all. I don't play in managed funds just because I like to pick and choose. Funds are a nice way to start a college fund in and have a good return when it's ready to be used.

This is all her money that she earned/worked for......mom and dad haven't put a penny into for her. She bought more this morning after saving 20% of her allowance for the last month. Kid is always asking for work to earn money......I hope she keeps it up.
 

Stites

That's Mister Black Flag To You
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
11,030
Location
In my house
This should help Tesla's stock as well as all other EV manufactures.

That said the irony that he will help the environment with trying to stop pollution from gas vehicles, but yet doing nothing to work the forests to reduce these massive fires is comical at best. Anyone in Cali seen a fucking day of sunlight in the last 6 weeks? Here in Reno we are on a 3 days streak of sun.......feels weird after all of the fucking smoke for the last 6 weeks

 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
It will help it in a decade or so.

I think as more of the "expert analyst" have engineers explain to them what happened on Battery day they're going to be more interested in the tech and less in the snappy presentations of the past.

One of the things that was mentioned was that Tesla is reducing production cost 56%. Prior to this $108 per kilowatt hour was their threshold. That probably has a lot of ICE industry people brushing up their resumes. Its been widely expected that once the $100 KwHr is broken ICE becomes more expensive to operate. (I could be wrong)

Toyota and VW will probably be able to stay in the business. BMW is about 2 years away from making less total cars (ICE and EV Combined) than Tesla if they don't do something significant. GM, Ford, Dodge, all in big trouble. At least GM is taking over Nikola so they get you know....nothing. Their brightest hopes for survival is buying batteries from Tesla.
 

Stites

That's Mister Black Flag To You
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
11,030
Location
In my house
Interesting couple of days as TSLA has nearly 5% increase yesterday and is down 6.5% today.
 

Rhino

K-9 BAMF
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
20,099
Location
Fuck you
It will help it in a decade or so.

I think as more of the "expert analyst" have engineers explain to them what happened on Battery day they're going to be more interested in the tech and less in the snappy presentations of the past.

One of the things that was mentioned was that Tesla is reducing production cost 56%. Prior to this $108 per kilowatt hour was their threshold. That probably has a lot of ICE industry people brushing up their resumes. Its been widely expected that once the $100 KwHr is broken ICE becomes more expensive to operate. (I could be wrong)

Toyota and VW will probably be able to stay in the business. BMW is about 2 years away from making less total cars (ICE and EV Combined) than Tesla if they don't do something significant. GM, Ford, Dodge, all in big trouble. At least GM is taking over Nikola so they get you know....nothing. Their brightest hopes for survival is buying batteries from Tesla.

G.M. has to do something on batteries that is for sure. the recall on all the Bolts they need a better hold on things.

 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
G.M. has to do something on batteries that is for sure. the recall on all the Bolts they need a better hold on things.

the challenge for GM is that they have huge liabilities in their current infrastructure in engine plants. They have a volume issue that means they have to keep pumping the pump on ICE and related platforms. It's not that they won't develop electric platforms, its a budget thing. The same for Ford, Toyota, BMW, VW.

Some of those companies are further along (VW is a good example.) Some are building decent platforms with their hybrids etc.

Where Tesla is ahead is Battery tech. Also consider that Tesla's current phase of development is not a car platform, its a factory platform. In short, Tesla has gone head long into the business of building factories.

Ultimately though what could be the big disruptor is neither. If/when Tesla can build a fully autonomous vehicle i.e. uber or lyft type service it will really change the way people view cars.

TLSA - S&P 500

Discuss......
this is a big move, that even the most adamant bear's have to be saying "oh fuck". Its not just a cash opportunity for Tesla, its a credibility one. If and when they level out, volatility starts to level off, what you'll see next is the big houses will drop their margin requirements on tesla from the current 65% to a standard 30%. That could eclipse the S&P deal as it will also affect their Corp bond rating.
 

Stites

That's Mister Black Flag To You
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
11,030
Location
In my house
what you'll see next is the big houses will drop their margin requirements on tesla from the current 65% to a standard 30%. That could eclipse the S&P deal as it will also affect their Corp bond rating.
Care to elaborate? Margin Requirements?
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #536
TLSA - S&P 500 Discuss......
46205

Yeah, the "small" jump yesterday was likely on the heel of the news. There's always a surge due to funds including the offering. S&P 500 inclusion was bound to happen. The committee was being cautious adding TSLA previously because of the volatility. Now they've proven themselves worthy. December 21st.
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #538
Interesting back stories around TSLA today.

An anonymous source, or sources, have bought up about 50 million shares of TSLA. What's interesting about this are the rules around a 5% or greater investment/ownership in a company without disclosure. Warren Buffett and Elon have no love lost between them. Buffett owns an electric consortium in NV and has lobbied heavily against solar, where Elon has been pushing solar. Buffett is also heavily invested in ICE automobile dealerships and, as such, as lobbied against EV sales in the areas those dealerships are in. On and on. They aren't buddies. There are very few companies that can afford a 5% stake in TSLA and Buffett owns about half of those companies.

The price continues to climb. I put in a short sale for 5-6 shares to pay for my new PC. :D
 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
in you short sale, is it actual shorting, or a smaller position/portion you're just flipping or taking off the table for the day? Looks like they're going into a new trading range

*Edit:
looks like TSLA is stuck momentarily in round number syndrome (500)
 
Last edited:
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #540
in you short sale, is it actual shorting, or a smaller position/portion you're just flipping or taking off the table for the day? Looks like they're going into a new trading range
Well, it was just to pull out a few bucks in a potentially uncertain time. The market is a bit weird right now. Maintaining a higher average which usually points to a generally positive outlook in society, but I don't know what could be generating a positive outlook. It certainly isn't the barrage of COVID death numbers and related business blackouts (and subsequent failures). Maybe it's just the general hope of political change. There is historically a slight surge after a presidential election, but this election is/was so weird, I wasn't sure if history would repeat in this case.

For the most part, holding my position on everything. I did consider dumping everything that made money the past 12 months and buy back in when the reality of the political situation sets in. I'm seeing good returns on anything EV... NIO, BLNK, XPEV and, of course, TSLA. All of which are triple digit percentage gain.

A small sample of my current portfolio snapshot...
46427

Good things are happening. I just can't fully explain them. Of course I can speculate... :D
 
  • Barf
Reactions: Red

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
thanks for the clarification. Taking profit has been proven to be 100% effective.
 

maui

Big Bore diggidy mayhem
Joined
Dec 12, 2001
Messages
31,974
Location
see above
It seems there are still positive signs for Tesla. Inclusion in the S&P 500, Morgan Stanley upgrading to over weight and increasing their price target from 360 to 540, Warren Buffet looking very much like he just bought 50-60 million shares, Yahoo news reporting that Tesla is lagging the market after an almost 20% gain ....this week.... and the fact that nomad is advising people to short Tesla, even though it's unlikely he's taking his own advice.
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #543
TSLA has been hella strong this week.

47232

This moves Musk to Forbes billionaire #3 just ahead of Gates and not far behind #2 (Bernard Arnault - Louis Vuitton).
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #545
Here we are... 12/18.

TSLA entering the S&P 500 on Monday will be the largest re-balancing in the history of that index. They need to move about 130 million shares by close of trading today. This will likely be the heaviest trading day in the history of the market.

I'm loaded and ready!
 

Stites

That's Mister Black Flag To You
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
11,030
Location
In my house
Here we are... 12/18.

TSLA entering the S&P 500 on Monday will be the largest re-balancing in the history of that index. They need to move about 130 million shares by close of trading today. This will likely be the heaviest trading day in the history of the market.

I'm loaded and ready!
Meaning what? You plan on selling off some today and rebuying back in?
 
OP
Dameon

Dameon

BAMF+
Joined
Aug 1, 2002
Messages
11,129
Location
Lafayette, LA
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #547
Meaning what? You plan on selling off some today and rebuying back in?
Yep... been doing it all week. Small amounts (usually 20 shares) in case I get caught on the downside. It's been pretty consistent between ~$600 and ~$640. Buy 20 at ~$600 one day, sell at ~$640 the next. I've done that 3 times this week. $800 a pop times 3.... $2400 this week alone.

I'm parked for now though. Probably sell a chunk around an hour before market close. Buy it back Monday.
 
Top Bottom