Trump is maga popular..

   #1  

Z

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   #4  

luckystrike

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Yeah, well we saw how accurate "polls" were in 2016 didn't we?
I still take comfort in the 52%

In '16 few took Trump seriously as a POTUS, he was an unknown or an outlier that was a good 'stress test' for any polling or statistical models.

2 years later he's still unpredictable but much, much less so, so his state of affairs is encouraging.

I've said it before, if the labor market continues as is, DT is solid for '20 :up:
 
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   #7  

gobrian77

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Polls that query 'likely voters' (LV) always skew slightly toward the right- if they query 'all Americans' (A), they skew slightly toward the left- the polls that tend to be more accurate query 'registered voters'(RV). There's a reason Rasmussen nearly always has the highest number for Trump's approval, and Reuters nearly always has the lowest. The average of all the polls is somewhere closer to the truth. Also note that there was a bump after the SOTU- ten days ago, Rasmussen had the lowest number for Trump in over a year. A daily snapshot isn't very accurate- the trend is what counts. If there's a shutdown later this week, everyone's numbers will again go down.

A, RV, LV (All adults, registered voters, likely voters)? Population effects in public opinion polling - Ipsos Ideas Spotlight
 
   #8  

gobrian77

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And Rasmussen the only poll to get it right.
A couple polls called it for Trump (and, if you include the margin-of-error and/or the popular vote, many were in the ballpark or pretty much correct)- one of them, IBB/TIPP Tracking, slightly overestimated Trump in 2016, and, in their last approval poll from February 1st (see AD's link above in post #2), they had him at only 39% (they polled 'all Americans', which, as I noted, skews left). These daily/weekly polls don't mean a lot. And, to be fair, Rasmussen didn't call the election for Trump- they called it for Clinton +2 (they claim they were most accurate as Clinton ended up winning the populace vote by just under 2%, but they still gave her the win in electoral votes prior to the election).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...presidential-election/?utm_term=.6d297f38be55

Rasmussen Reports Calls It Right - Rasmussen ReportsĀ®
 
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