Tariffs Haven’t Boosted Consumer Prices

   #101  

gobrian77

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again, any story can be spun in any way you want it to...it truly doesnt matter what the subject or topic is. you cant even make a decision that would make 1000 people happy (there is always someone feeling left out)...much less a few billion.

The media is lying to you about Trump’s China tariffs
He's not spinning the facts, though, which can't be spun- he's agreeing costs go up, but he says it's not a big deal- he agrees with the basic premise that this trade war causes consumer prices to rise through what are essentially extra taxes. He calls the costs 'chicken feed', which is subjective to your net worth. Actually, he's saying, 'We're paying more, but so what?

I agree with some of what he stated- he also agrees with what I've been saying here, which is that, contrary to what was claimed in the OP, tariffs have caused consumer prices to rise, and the new round of tariffs will cause them to rise further as they affect a wider range of products. If you want to argue the efficacy and purpose of the trade war, that's a different subject. The article above backs up what I said.

He states:

Yes, tariffs are “costs.” But they do not somehow destroy our money. They do not take our hard-earned dollars and burn them in a big pile. Tariffs are simply federal taxes. That’s it. The extra costs paid by importers, and consumers, goes to Uncle Sam, to distribute as he sees fit, including, for example, on Obamacare subsidies.
 
   #102  
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again, its still spin when you hand select which "facts" you wish to use to support your argument while omitting or ignoring the "facts" that support the opposite stance.

there is no disputing the fact that "tarriffs raise prices". but that is a consequence, not the goal or even the intent of them in the first place.


much like how the fact that many americans got a smaller refund that was spun into a negative...ignoring the fact that they actually got more in their paycheck all 52 weeks of the year and thus resulted in a smaller refund at the end.
 
   #103  
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interesting... Id say Im pretty well diversified.
This was the case before 2008 so again... wouldnt matter if I had 5000 shares of APPL or 10000 of UPS or LLY or MSFT...lol. Those are just the "passive" savings strategies. I cant imagine if you were "actively" trading or watching... letting it evaporate??
lol 'trading your active retirement account'.

Most people have no idea what an expense ratio, now they are actively trading their nest egg?
 
   #104  

gobrian77

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there is no disputing the fact that "tarriffs raise prices". but that is a consequence, not the goal or even the intent of them in the first place.
Which is all I've been saying on this thread... Did you read the title of it? My argument has been that tariffs raise prices (which we both agree is a fact) in response to an OP that claims they don't. I used facts that support that premise- if I argue another aspect, I'll support that with facts as well (to the degree it's possible). If you want to discuss other aspects of tariffs (about which we may or may not agree) I can do that.

I understand how tariffs work and I understand their intended effects and positive/negative consequences (I've lived in a country that uses protectionist tariffs for the past 18 years- I think I understand them better than most people here).
 
   #105  
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but its still focusing on the byproduct and not the goal.

if a product costs 100% more to be produced within the US due to all the additional factors involved that dont apply to other countries (labor costs of paying 1st world full time employees being the biggest reason...but also unions/health insurance/osha/epa/etc/etc)....what would you propose other than a tarriff on said product from said countries to level the playing field to allow the same product to be produced and sold locally at the same (or an otherwise competitive) price?
 
   #106  

gobrian77

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I was focusing on the point of the OP- you're arguing a completely different point. The OP said tariffs don't raise prices- I said they do- you've already agreed that it's a fact that they cause prices to rise, so that's done as far as we're concerned.

I also understand the point of tariffs is to protect and advance the domestic market, but, as recent history has shown (see W's steel tariff or Obama's tire tariff), while they generally help the industries at which they're aimed, they tend to hurt the ancillary industries that depend on them (W's tariffs costs 10's of thousands more jobs than they created, and the cost of each new job that was produced due to them cost something like $800,000 per position). What happens is alternate sources of cheap imported goods are found, which doesn't help the domestic market. Does the solution then become putting huge tariffs on all imported goods from all foreign locations? Then we're back to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which is credited with prolonging the Great Depression.

Of course, then what happens to the price and quality of domestically-produced goods when there's no cheaper competition? I can tell you that first-hand- prices go up, quality goes down, and your choices become severely limited (and there's no way a potentially cheaper, better foreign product that's hit with a high tariff can compete, so there's no incentive for the domestic market to improve).

Historically, tariffs don't work in the long term- they cause the economy to contract, they raise unemployment, they hurt the stock market, and they screw the US export market, which is hit with retaliatory tariffs. Maybe in the short-term we'll see something different this time, but, as I said earlier, we'll likely end up with the same sort of deal with China that we could have worked out by simply negotiating as Americans probably aren't going to be as willing to take the pain for as long as the Chinese will (mostly because the Chinese have no choice- there's an election coming up in 2020 that Trump wants to win).

I don't know what the best solution is, but I don't think tariffs are it.
 
   #107  
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what would you propose other than a tarriff on said product from said countries to level the playing field to allow the same product to be produced and sold locally at the same (or an otherwise competitive) price?
Here's a better question - why is this important?

Why interfere with the free market to create an inefficiency? Someone is able to produce a product for cheaper than the competition, which is exactly what the customer wants - cheap shit to buy from Wal-Mart and wherever else. America is no longer a cheap-trinket manufacturer, let China handle that shit.

I understand the logic of using tariffs (though I don't necessarily agree with it) as a weapon to enforce a behavioral change, but as a means to revive a dead sector of manufacturing, no thank you.

This reminds me of rent caps - good idea on paper to do good, but ended up doing the exact opposite.
 
   #108  

gobrian77

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Here's a local example of tariffs that affect me personally (note that performance cars- meaning anything over 200hp- have the highest tariffs of anything that's hit with one coming into Thailand, so this is an extreme example, but it affects anyone who buys a car , new or used, and it's done to protect the local industry from foreign competition)- Ford came out with a right-hand-drive Mustang last year, and I thought I might buy one if Ford Thailand added them to the local factory line (meaning the price would probably have been ~40K locally- high, but not a deal-breaker)- nope, they're 'import only', so they're subject to a huge tariff. The EcoBoost model is less than 30K in the US- it's (the equivalent of) $114,000 here ($152,000 for the GT)- there's nothing produced locally that's anywhere even close to matching either, so I'm SOL as I'm not paying that for a base Mustang:- I'll be going for a boring sedan or SUV that's built domestically and is reasonably priced.

I could show many other examples involving toys, sporting goods, motorcycle helmets, tools, clothing, etc, the prices of which are all ridiculously high compared to the US because of tariffs. If you're at the bottom of the food chain as a consumer in this type of protectionist system, it sucks- yeah, I have cheaper options, but my choices for many things are limited and generally lower in quality unless I pay more than something is worth. When I'm visiting the US, I buy several suitcases full of stuff to bring back as that's the only way to avoid import tariffs (it's extremely rare to get hit with a tax at the airport).

E7AC2BEE-3580-4605-BE5A-3E1705D02FDE.jpeg
 
   #109  

Terry_Schiavo

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lol 'trading your active retirement account'.
Most people have no idea what an expense ratio, now they are actively trading their nest egg?
and hence my confusion about these losses if professionally managed. Like paying a person to pump gas but they spill 5 gallons on the ground. A friend of mine managed a local utility retirement pool with ~ a billion in assets from 05-2011. Did he lose 500 million? faaaack no
 
   #110  
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The Nuclear Option: Trump Schools Beltway — Again — This Time on China

3:45

SEOUL — It is always funny what passes as principled “purity” in Washington.

President Trump wakens the American giant to the trade war China has been waging against us for decades, and all the principled purists along the Potomac begin bleating and sputtering about “free trade” and “protectionism.”

Because, yeah, the American economy is about to go dark and we are going to return to the stone age. We can’t even build a frigging wall without the entire political system on both sides of the aisle throwing a hissy fit.

Free trade? Who are these people kidding? To whom do they think they are still lying?

They haven’t been giving us free trade all these years. They have just been the people in charge of all the so-called “free trade” agreements (hammered out by governments, of course) and so they like things just fine.

Of course, they do. They are the ones who have been deciding all this time who wins and who loses. Whose cow is sacred and whose gets gored.

True free trade would be the wonderful wild, wild west. Open the borders to trade and let the market sort it out. But this ain’t free trade and it never has been.

President Trump is the only person who has called these people on their lies. And he has repeatedly called everybody’s bluff by saying he would happily drop all tariffs with all countries.

Now THAT would be free trade. But the buzzards in Washington could not get fed that way so they would never agree to such a reckless plan.

Meanwhile, these people keep on defending the status quo where China wrecks our patents, steals our intellectual property and subsidizes Chinese industry with a keen eye toward destroying America’s industry.

Indeed, over the past few decades that America has been unbolting and shipping her factories overseas to China and elsewhere, “industry” has actually become a dirty word in America. Literally, a dirty word.

The country that invented the assembly line, opened the West with the steam engine locomotive and built the world’s first skyscrapers has become a country run by silk stockings who don’t even dirty their dainty little hands with paper greenbacks anymore. It’s all digital.

These people still cannot grasp Mr. Trump’s shocking election two and a half years ago. If that election was about any one thing, it was about work.

Mr. Trump’s entire campaign was a master class in reaching American workers and offering them a vision of a country that would let them work again.

Whether it was bringing back steel and coal jobs, cutting ridiculous federal regulations, standing up to China or stopping the flow of illegal immigration across the Southern border, his entire campaign message was tailored to workers and people who want to see America get back to work again.

Like the steel truss bridge over the Delaware River reads: “Trenton makes, the world takes.”

All this is why Mr. Trump’s escalating tariff war with China is so perfectly in keeping with his 2016 campaign. And Mr. Trump is laughing all the way to the Treasury, counting all the money coming in through his new tariffs.

All the free trade “purists” in Washington scoff that this is no way to fund a country. But before the imposition of the federal income tax in 1913, trade tariffs were a primary source of income for the federal government. Sure, the federal government was smaller back then, but isn’t that the point?

Anyway, is there anything more insidious and destructive to a free self-governed society than discouraging work? Well, that is exactly what an income tax does. It punishes people for working.

A consumption tax would be far fairer. Instead of punishing work, it would celebrate work. Workers once again could take home their entire paycheck. The only problem with a consumption tax is that it is so hard for the federal government to administer.

Unless, of course, you collected it at the border when tariffed goods arrived.

Contact Charles Hurt at churt@washingtontimes.com or on Twitter @charleshurt.

PoliticsBeltwayChinaDonald TrumpWashington
 
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   #114  

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The street doesn't mind because it hasn't happened yet, and Wall Street remains hopeful that a deal will be worked out. If the 25% tariffs are still in place in six months or a year and Walmart depletes its stock of pre-tariff merchandise, it will be a completely different story.
 
   #115  
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MEH--all short term for the most part being discussed here. The real issue is IP!!!!!!!!!! That will be what kills the US in the end!

Exempted cars and Tesla is still going down the crapper.
 
   #115  

gobrian77

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MEH--all short term for the most part being discussed here. The real issue is IP!!!!!!!!!! That will be what kills the US in the end!

Exempted cars and Tesla is still going down the crapper.
Of course IP theft is one of the major issues, but we're talking about the impact and efficacy of tariffs here.
 
   #116  

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The street doesn't mind because it hasn't happened yet, and Wall Street remains hopeful that a deal will be worked out. If the 25% tariffs are still in place in six month or a year and Walmart depletes its stock of pre-tariff merchandise, it will be a completely different story.
The street is forward looking. A stock price is based on forward earnings.

Any trading house has factored in every scenario and price model with weighted risk
 
   #117  

gobrian77

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The street is forward looking. A stock price is based on forward earnings.

Any trading house has factored in every scenario and price model with weighted risk
Come on- they're betting the trade war will end soon, they same way they bet that the 25% tariffs weren't going to be imposed (wrong) and that the rest of the Chinese imports won't be tariffed (possibly wrong as well). It's not 'priced in'.

What's going to happen to Walmart's sales (and stock value) if they raise their prices?
 
   #118  
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Come on- they're betting the trade war will end soon, they same way they bet that the 25% tariffs weren't going to be imposed (wrong) and that the rest of the Chinese imports won't be tariffed (possibly wrong as well). It's not 'priced in'.

What's going to happen to Walmart's sales (and stock value) if they raise their prices?
That is why Trump is playing hard ball. China will be hurt more than the US in the long term if infrastructure leaves China. IP is also a big part of this and is one of the primary reasons the tariffs are being used in the First Place! The most effective tool in the arsenal to accomplish the end goal. Pain in the short term yes --- toughen up cowboy because it is not going to change. This is the only way to work the process with the Chi-coms. They do not understand anything else but blunt force. They know that the typical US politician will do as they have always done---Bend over and pull their pants down for them with a smile.

Make no mistake it is all about Long Term--yes earnings will take a hit no question, so be it. Just move more to cash as I have and wait to see. May want to look at bonds for the duration of this little short term blip. May even get a rate cut later in the year. Got to think ahead. Be smart play the game.
 
   #119  
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The street is forward looking. A stock price is based on forward earnings.

Any trading house has factored in every scenario and price model with weighted risk
You are very correct here..... The Street has already weighed a lot of this in. Hell numbers came out earlier this week that indicated the US economy is slowing.
 
   #120  

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Overall WMT sentiment is a 'BUY' and for sure a degree of tariff exposure is priced into their models which may be better revealed in the WMT short position

Management forward guidance has been dominating quarterly reports. Last few quarters tickers have reported stellar results but have been slaughtered because of guarded forward guidance

The forward guidance provided by WMT will take tariffs into account, to what degree they're not obligated to reveal. They might have contingency, such as layoffs, which is not something they would disclose


1558015403239.png
 
   #121  

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You're focusing on U.S. imports, and ignoring U.S. exports.
 
   #122  

gobrian77

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That is why Trump is playing hard ball. China will be hurt more than the US in the long term if infrastructure leaves China. IP is also a big part of this and is one of the primary reasons the tariffs are being used in the First Place! The most effective tool in the arsenal to accomplish the end goal. Pain in the short term yes --- toughen up cowboy because it is not going to change. This is the only way to work the process with the Chi-coms. They do not understand anything else but blunt force. They know that the typical US politician will do as they have always done---Bend over and pull their pants down for them with a smile.

Make no mistake it is all about Long Term--yes earnings will take a hit no question, so be it. Just move more to cash as I have and wait to see. May want to look at bonds for the duration of this little short term blip. May even get a rate cut later in the year. Got to think ahead. Be smart play the game.
Yes, China is likely to be hurt more, but they're also more likely to endure it longer. As mentioned earlier, the 2020 election is going to be a factor in Trump's decision-making process- Xi doesn't have to worry about that. The Chinese are going to target red states specifically, and the farmers that voted for Trump in 2016 are already taking a beating. You're looking at it in terms of your portfolio- most people who will be the hardest hit don't have a portfolio. This trade war could potentially cost 100,000+ jobs (that would be lost quickly and would come back slowly). The 'pain' means different things for different people- there's paying $10 more for Nike's pain, having your stocks lose some value pain, and losing your job/business and house pain. Not everyone is in the same privileged position as you seem to be in.

The forward guidance provided by WMT will take tariffs into account, to what degree they're not obligated to reveal. They might have contingency, such as layoffs, which is not something they would disclose
They already said they've had mitigation strategies in place for months, but that the new tariffs will still raise prices- the quote is in the article I linked.

That's it for me tonight- I'll pick,it up tomorrow.:wink2:
 
   #123  
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Yes, China is likely to be hurt more, but they're also more likely to endure it longer. As mentioned earlier, the 2020 election is going to be a factor in Trump's decision-making process- Xi doesn't have to worry about that. The Chinese are going to target red states specifically, and the farmers that voted for Trump in 2016 are already taking a beating. You're looking at it in terms of your portfolio- most people who will be the hardest hit don't have a portfolio. This trade war could potentially cost 100,000+ jobs (that would be lost quickly and would come back slowly). The 'pain' means different things for different people- there's paying $10 more for Nike's pain, having your stocks lose some value pain, and losing your job/business and house pain. Not everyone is in the same privileged position as you seem to be in.



They already said they've had mitigation strategies in place for months, but that the new tariffs will still raise prices- the quote is in the article I linked.

That's it for me tonight- I'll pick,it up tomorrow.:wink2:
Well you are making assumptions here. It is about long term viability not short term. It has needed to be taken on for many years. If it was allowed to go unabated as it has then in a few short years China would be in such a position of strength we could not do what we are doing as effectively as we are now. This is in fact the time to take action this on --- not during a full blown recession for instance.
 
   #124  

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WMT stated in their earnings press (as per headline on CNBC) that they are in good shape to hit 2019 targets

And there is another link on the same page with Cramer claiming US customers won't feel the tariff hike (which I do find difficult to believe, but hey, WMT is one of the best managed corps in history)

The point being, we can exchange links claiming this and that ad nauseum

I'm not here to argue so much as what's going to happen, but more so what I think is the right thing to do, and putting China into its place now rather than later is what I believe must happen
 
   #125  

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That's a great perspective for your position, but it sucks to be an exporter.

Again, it always demands on who's ox is getting gored.
 
   #126  

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Depends, not demands.
 
   #127  

Terry_Schiavo

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someone please tell me WHAT specific trade policies wont affect someone in the US?

Lets use Stites Stites as a manufacturing benchmark. He buys a new machine and has to hire American (or an H-1b) worker to program/operate machine to fill small production run orders that might typically be sent to China. Cost per part might be double because Stites lives in the US and doesnt employ slaves.
 
   #128  

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What country manufactured his new machine?
 
   #129  

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I can add anything new at this point- the next 'big day' will be when the Chinese retaliatory tariffs take effect on June 1st (if a deal isn't signed by then, which it almost certainly won't be as Trump and Xi aren't meeting until the end of June at the G20 Summit).
 
   #130  
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China’s Recent Treasury Sell-Off Shows Its $1.2 Trillion of U.S. Debt Poses No Threat
Data released this week shows that China cut its Treasury holdings by nearly $20.5 billion in March, the fastest pace of selling in more than two years. China has reduced its holdings all but three months since last June–when President Donald Trump slapped a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of Chinese imports.

But far from hurting the ability of the U.S. government to issue debt or driving down the price of Treasuries, China’s selling has been accompanied by Treasury prices moving up and yields moving down. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was 3.09 on November first. On Wednesday it was 2.37.

In March, the 10-year yield fell from 2.76 to 2.41. Yields move in the opposite direction of prices, so falling yields indicate bond prices rising.


China's Recent Treasury Sell-Off Shows Its $1.2 Trillion of U.S. Debt Poses No Threat | Breitbart
 
   #131  

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All this is why Mr. Trump’s escalating tariff war with China is so perfectly in keeping with his 2016 campaign. And Mr. Trump is laughing all the way to the Treasury, counting all the money coming in through his new tariffs.
Yes, he’s sure laughing at the MAGA hat brigade that cheer as he tells them how much China is paying.

Still, it’ll bring in some cash to help slow down his ballooning budget deficit caused by his tax cut.

And still his base will not work out that they are the ones paying for it.
 
   #133  

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Cost of goods includes debt service for plant and equipment. Your hypothetical model isn't complete, its flawed.
 
   #134  

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Consumer sentiment rocketed to its highest level in 15 years in May as Americans grew more upbeat on the health of the economy and its path in 2019, according to data released Friday.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary print on its consumer sentiment index rose to 102.4 in May, up from 97.2 in April and well ahead of economist expectations that it would rise to 97.5. However, the optimistic consumer outlook was mostly recorded before U.S.-China trade deliberations soured earlier this month.


Good idea to save a lot of money by skipping the '20 election entirely
 
   #136  

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Cost of goods includes debt service for plant and equipment. Your hypothetical model isn't complete, its flawed.
for demonstrative purposes it shows enough of how a small business would incur costs before any actual orders or work or IP is factored in but more importantly the difference in domestic risk vs foreign investment.
 
   #140  

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You're cherry picking your line items and ignoring acounting and economic principles.
 
   #141  

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i wasnt writing a thesis...please break it down for us.
 
   #142  

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Pay tuition and go to class like I had to.
 
   #145  
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people that put money where their mouths are dont seem to give much credence to the "sky is falling" theory about the tarriffs....market still tickling 26k days after it was announced.

time will tell, but it seems like we have these same "trump is an idiot" posts every few weeks since he took office...one might pan out eventually for dems!
 
   #146  
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With respect to the current tariff escalation it is going to be a couple of quarters at least before we see FULL earnings impact depending on the ie components/products being produced and delivered here for sale or incorporation into an end item.

My God ---POTUS left autos out. Imagine that Tesla would have just thrown in the towel after today lol. :)
 
   #147  
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man, no matter what Trump does...it cant seem to overcome the incredible way the economy has continued to grow since obamas term ended.

thanks obama!
 
   #148  

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I'm not sure what a Bachelor of Accounting is. Please explain.
 
   #150  

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Wouldn't that be a Bachelor of Science, majoring in accounting?

What are the credit requirements for a "Bachelor of Accounting" degree?
 
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