Tariffs Haven’t Boosted Consumer Prices

   #51  

gobrian77

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Trump is looking for another $15bil in subsidies for farmers- US soybean prices are at a 10-year low (as China- the main export market- is going to be drastically decreasing their US purchases, which were already down due to previous punitive tariffs levied in 2018), and they're going up in countries like Brazil (which exported nearly every soybean they could grow in 2018 due the weakening of the US market, and have most likely stepped up production in anticipation of doing the same in 2019) that are ready to move in and fill the void. The Heartland tends to vote red, and the farmers there aren't going to be too happy about the continued hits they're taking.
 
   #53  

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From Wikipedia

Great Firewall - Wikipedia


The Great Firewall of China (GFW) is the combination of legislative actions and technologies enforced by the People's Republic of China to regulate the Internet domestically. Its role in the Internet censorship in China is to block access to selected foreign websites and to slow down cross-border internet traffic. The effect includes: limiting access to foreign information sources, blocking foreign internet tools (e.g. Google search, Facebook, Twitter etc.) and mobile apps, and requiring foreign companies to adapt to domestic regulations. Besides censorship, the GFW has also influenced the development of China's internal internet economy by nurturing domestic companies and reducing the effectiveness of products from foreign internet companies.

Rubbish to think this trade war began with Trump. It's been on since the first IP address was lit up in the mainland.
 
   #54  

gobrian77

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Who said it began with Trump? Nobody. China has a political system that controls its citizens and censors their information- in other news, water is wet. There's no aspect to the current trade war that has anything to do with changing China's social structure- this is about economics

W. tried out steel and aluminum tariffs (which had much to do with China dumping cheap steel into the US market) back in his first term and it didn't work out to so well- Why steel tariffs failed when Bush was president. In the attempt to help certain industries (which it did to a degree), it ended up harming the ancillary industries that depend on them way beyond any good it did- that's what might happen again.

GFW has also influenced the development of China's internal internet economy by nurturing domestic companies and reducing the effectiveness of products from foreign internet companies.
That's exactly what Trump is trying to do (reduce the effectiveness of Chinese companies). Again, no big shock that China would 'nurture domestic companies', which are partly or fully state-owned or controlled. Trump's stance is 'America First' (as it should be)- Xi's stance is 'China First' (as it should be). You always seem surprised that China does what's best for China, and pushes things as far as they can. You can blame previous administrations for the current circumstances, but reasons don't change facts. What Trump is doing might work out brilliantly, or it might crash-and-burn and plunge the US economy into a recession- you have to look at it realistically, and weigh the potential costs to the potential benefits- it may very well not be worth it to hurt China economically if the blow to our own economy is too great (a Pyrrhic victory). 'Fuck China' sounds great and all, but there's that old saying about 'Cutting off your nose to spite your face'.
 
   #55  

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"There's no aspect to the current trade war that has anything to do with changing China's social structure- this is about economics"

Disagree. The two are inseparable.

"You always seem surprised that China does what's best for China, and pushes things as far as they can."


Of course China should be doing what's best for China as per any nation. But China theft and cheating is beyond that.

"What Trump is doing might work out brilliantly, or it might crash-and-burn and plunge the US economy into a recession-"

China will crash and burn first and harder
 
   #56  

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China social and political policies definitely make economic and foreign relations much easier to manage than our bureaucratic democracy. So, as much as I hate to agree with LS, he's correct in linking the two.


That brings up a question; are you ready to endure a long term recession in the U.S. in order to "win"? Or, when the predicted recession gobbles up your 401 K plan will you cry foul?
 
   #58  

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That's all fine to say, but a Chinese proverb comes to mind, "Talk doesn't cook rice."
 
   #59  

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I wonder if the rest of the U.S. population is willing to reduce their standard of living to that of the Chinese to "win"?
 
   #60  

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Probably not. The long game is absent from the American psyche

Maybe if the trade war was turned into an Avengers franchise...
 
   #61  

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This may well result in a full scale military conflict, which may well be what is needed.
 
   #63  

rumble phish

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In a sense it already is. The cyber war is raging full on while we discuss the socio-political commentary and merits of cartoon comic book movies :)
And Israel is now the first country to have responded with a physical military response to a cyber attack. This shit WILL hit the fan... probably sooner rather than later.
 
   #64  

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So far its bee resource producers that have born the brunt of the trade war, (I've posted my reaction to this adequately) but that is about to change with the escalation of tarrifs.

If our economy deteriorates to the point that we can't afford the level of social services that we have now it will usher in the new left with their promises of utopia; and the Republican party will have squandered its chance to actually make some meaningful reforms.
 
   #65  

rumble phish

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So far its bee resource producers that have born the brunt of the trade war, (I've posted my reaction to this adequately) but that is about to change with the escalation of tarrifs.

If our economy deteriorates to the point that we can't afford the level of social services that we have now it will usher in the new left with their promises of utopia; and the Republican party will have squandered its chance to actually make some meaningful reforms.
Deja vue?
 
   #66  

Terry_Schiavo

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If our economy deteriorates to the point that we can't afford the level of social services that we have now it will usher in the new left with their promises of utopia; and the Republican party will have squandered its chance to actually make some meaningful reforms.
why does it come down to parties? Fuck em all. Does the avg citizen have any issues that a member of Congress can resolve??
 
   #67  

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So far its bee resource producers that have born the brunt of the trade war, (I've posted my reaction to this adequately) but that is about to change with the escalation of tarrifs.

If our economy deteriorates to the point that we can't afford the level of social services that we have now it will usher in the new left with their promises of utopia; and the Republican party will have squandered its chance to actually make some meaningful reforms.

only if Trump cant close the borders tight...

don't count out the strongest economy the World has seen since WWII...

We have had our hands tied in order to show the world that We are not a DANGER...

Too Bad Nixon and his Henchmen (right into the Obama Admin) kept building China...

WE needed a Yang to our Yin for for a strong military and "fill in the blanks"

Too bad the USSR collapsed...
 
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   #68  

luckystrike

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So far its bee resource producers that have born the brunt of the trade war, (I've posted my reaction to this adequately) but that is about to change with the escalation of tarrifs.

If our economy deteriorates to the point that we can't afford the level of social services that we have now it will usher in the new left with their promises of utopia; and the Republican party will have squandered its chance to actually make some meaningful reforms.
There is no more 'meaningful reform' than this trade war

The potential pain will play right into Trump's hands because he has China to point at and leverage easy populism claiming them to be lying, cheating job stealing oppressors

It's a win-win for him
 
   #69  

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...there is camp ground in CT that makes big $$$...it was a farm and one year the farmer tried out the camp ground idea on a small part of the farm after reading an article in some magazine...

...he made out so well that the next year he discontinued farming and put his effort into developing the camp ground...

...now his decedents run a huge successful operation that includes a fancy resaruant...
Which camp ground?
 
   #71  

Snail

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That's my back yard in the high Cascades on the Little Dechuttes river. Recently purchased.
 
   #72  

CID

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Sure looks like apple's got a wake up call coming.... no pun intended.
 
   #74  

gobrian77

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China has the 'nuclear option' of dumping the $1.2trillion in US debt they hold- while this would be shooting thmeselves in the head as well (costing them tens-of-billions at least), it would cause US bond yield rates to spike, the dollar to devalue, and likely put the US economy into a recession. The chances of this happening are pretty low (at this point), but it's still out there- Will China pull the trigger and dump U.S. Treasuries?. China is also going to subsidize more industries than Trump will.

That said, I don't think they have to do anything but wait a year or so (during which both sides will take hits) and let the US economy slide a bit- if the economy heads south and the markets/GDP/401K/jobs numbers go down, Trump may be vulnerable in 2020 (George H.W. Bush looked like a lock for a second term at the same point in his presidency...)- Trump isn't going to do anything that will hurt his chances of being re-elected- he'll sign a deal (even if it's not really that great for the US) and will tout it as a breakthrough victory and things will go on as before all this started. The biggest advantage Xi has is that he can wait out Trump- Xi isn't going anywhere no matter what happens in China. There very well could be a deal announced after the G20 Summit in June when Trump and Xi meet face-to-face.

If the last year is any indication, Chinese won't be bullied into making an unfavorable deal (unlike Canada, Mexico, or the EU), even if it costs them- they're stubborn motherfuckers, but also extremely patient- that's not an impossible combination to beat, but it's going to take a long time to wear them down to a desperate level, which Trump really doesn't have.

This is it right here- the Chinese tend to think in terms of decades- the US tends to think in terms of administrations:

I wonder if the rest of the U.S. population is willing to reduce their standard of living to that of the Chinese to "win"?
Probably not. The long game is absent from the American psyche
 
   #75  
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Trump might lose some smart republican voters over this. Most dumbasses that don't have two nickels to rub together won't even notice unless they lose their jobs. And that is a lot of his base. I call bullshit on not boosting consumer prices. Maybe not so much but it's coming in a big way. Gives everyone an excuse to raise prices. I imagine fuel will be hittin $3.50 a gallon soon enough, lingering around $3 here. Grocery shopping already gone up. I hate going, drop a hundred and two days later nothing to show for it.
 
   #76  

Snail

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What's scary, at least to me, is how vulnerable small businesses are. I lost a $300K thriving small business in less than a week.
 
   #78  

gobrian77

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8 of the 10 states that will be hit the hardest by this round of tariffs voted red in 2016, including Michigan, which Trump carried by a tiny margin. China is going to strategically attack his base, just like it did to W back ~2002/3, causing him to back off his steel tariffs. The Chinese waited until Monday night their time so they could announce their retaliatory tariffs just before US markets opened Monday morning for maximum effect (which was achieved). They know how to hit where it hurts, even if they can't go dollar-for-dollar.

In the end Trump may very well win, but it's going to get ugly before that happens if a deal isn't worked out soon.
 
   #80  
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Former Goldman Sachs CEO backs Trump's China tariffs

''While China said it would retaliate with its own duties on $60 billion in U.S. shipments, experts say U.S. consumers are unlikely to see much of an impact on prices''.

:razz:
 
   #81  

gobrian77

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It seems the Chief Economist who's currently at Goldman Sachs disagree with him- here's the chart they just came out with showing the projected tariff impact on prices:

This chart from Goldman Sachs shows tariffs are raising prices for consumers and it could get worse

“New evidence on the effects of the 2018 tariff rounds from two detailed academic studies points to larger effects on US consumer prices than we had previously estimated, admitted Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, in a note to clients Saturday. “First, the costs of US tariffs have fallen entirely on US businesses and households, with no clear reduction in the prices charged by Chinese exporters. Second, the effects of the tariffs have spilled over noticeably to the prices charged by US producers competing with tariff-affected goods.”

5BAAFB83-1205-44F3-8C02-268845080125.jpeg
 
   #84  

Snail

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Speculation stimulates interpretations of what might happen.

To find out the truth of what is actually happening you need to talk directly to the people affected by the situation.

I'm seriously curious how small business in other sectors and geographical regions are doing.

Take off the MAGGOT hats, forget the cliches, and the memes and look for the truth.
 
   #86  

Snail

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Only if you care about the truth.
 
   #87  
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Tariff Tracker

In a lot of instances here, they just buckle down, fire some people and are waiting it out. It's still early for the increase though. It's early for this thread. At more than double now it's come or bleed time.
 
   #88  

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What's scary, at least to me, is how vulnerable small businesses are. I lost a $300K thriving small business in less than a week.
...tell me aboot it...
 
   #89  

Terry_Schiavo

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What's scary, at least to me, is how vulnerable small businesses are. I lost a $300K thriving small business in less than a week.
as in you cant find it? $300k what? In cap costs? Assets?
 
   #90  

Terry_Schiavo

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wait, you mean i could choose to talk to different people directly affected and get different opinions and facts to support whatever story I wanted to tell?
I cant say Ive ever worked in an industry closely tied to the "economy" metric. Well I take that back... I was in real estate and construction during the "great crash of 2008"... yet Im still baffled how peoples investments lost 60% or more??
You talk with some folks... they got wiped out in 2008. Now 10yrs later they are flush but not in the same way? I dont believe for a second
those folks had anything other than the "belief" they had a fuck ton of equity via some website or loan application or using a HELOC as an ATM...lol
 
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I cant say Ive ever worked in an industry closely tied to the "economy" metric. Well I take that back... I was in real estate and construction during the "great crash of 2008"... yet Im still baffled how peoples investments lost 60% or more??
You talk with some folks... they got wiped out in 2008. Now 10yrs later they are flush but not in the same way? I dont believe for a second
those folks had anything other than the "belief" they had a fuck ton of equity via some website or loan application or using a HELOC as an ATM...lol
Easy if you're in most common stocks. Even if you held "safe(r)" index funds, you'd have seen a catastrophic drop. It changed the course of peoples lives, many people had to push off retirement.

You mentioned you gained 2 to 3% that year, but neglected to mention what you were in.
 
   #92  
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Empire State Survey Points to Manufacturing Recovery in May

That makes this the first look at how escalating trade tensions might impact the economy. And the results suggest the answer is very little. Economy watchers will look to Thursday’s report from the Philadelphia Fed on its manufacturing survey to see if the Empire State’s results are confirmed.

New orders, unfilled orders, and shipments were all on the upswing. Inventories declined, which can be a positive for future production.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2019/05/15/empire-state-survey-points-to-manufacturing-recovery-in-may/
 
   #93  

gobrian77

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If distribution prices go up due to tariffs (or for any reason), wholesale prices go up- if wholesale prices go up, retail prices go up- it ain't rocket surgery. Also, if a product isn't subject to a tariff (or any other price-increasing issue) but its competition is and the price of the competitive product goes up, the price of the non-tariffed product will generally go up to some degree as well (because it can).

I don't agree with the 'prices going up won't cause prices to go up' argument...
 
   #94  

gobrian77

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wait, you mean i could choose to talk to different people directly affected and get different opinions and facts to support whatever story I wanted to tell?
The article I posted isn't only 'opinion'- it's based on what has actually happened to prices so far (which is that they've gone up due to tariffs).
 
   #95  

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My weed guy raised his prices. I asked if this was due to the tariff hike. He said, “don’t call me until you feel you can discuss things like an adult!”

I should just link this thread to him and then get my hook up :up:
 
   #97  

gobrian77

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It's an article specifically about the effect on prices- there are loads of other articles about other aspects of the trade war. Of course there are reasons for and effects of tariffs (positive and negative) beyond what's been discussed here- tariffs drive up consumer prices, though, and that's the point I was arguing.
 
   #98  

gobrian77

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In a lot of instances here, they just buckle down, fire some people and are waiting it out. It's still early for the increase though. It's early for this thread. At more than double now it's come or bleed time.
Soybean farmers were in the process of getting back to business in Q1 2019 after getting crushed in Q3/Q4 2018, and now they'll get knocked back again (I remember reading quotes from farmers saying the $12bil subsidy they got wasn't nearly enough to make up for their losses- Trump is looking for $15bil+ this year):

72BB9371-837B-46D7-8BE8-9731312ABBE3.jpeg
 
   #100  

Terry_Schiavo

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Easy if you're in most common stocks. Even if you held "safe(r)" index funds, you'd have seen a catastrophic drop. It changed the course of peoples lives, many people had to push off retirement.
You mentioned you gained 2 to 3% that year, but neglected to mention what you were in.
interesting... Id say Im pretty well diversified.
This was the case before 2008 so again... wouldnt matter if I had 5000 shares of APPL or 10000 of UPS or LLY or MSFT...lol. Those are just the "passive" savings strategies. I cant imagine if you were "actively" trading or watching... letting it evaporate??
 
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