RIVN: Buy It Now

luckystrike

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Doug DeMuro just posted a decent review

(I don’t link to ‘that’ video site. In fact, I think it should be banned site-wide)

I’ve never owned a truck but man this thing wowed me although small bed but it has a big frunk

stock is still only worth $30 though
 

jhinderliter

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They re tooled the old Mitsubishi plant in Bloomington to build the trucks .. about 50 miles from my doorstep..

my buddies kid got hired on as a welder a few months ago ..

lotsa money being spent .. subsidized I’m assuming..
 
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Dameon

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Ironically... at market close yesterday, the only 2 stocks in my portfolio that were green (increase in value over open) were LCID and RIVN.

Yesterday (hell, last week) was a blood bath for my stock holdings.
 

rumble phish

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Musk and Warren locking horns on twitter

Tesla being locked out of democRAT EV build back better events
Guess Warren and the D's don't really give a shit about the environment or American jobs after all. If they did, they'd be tripping over themselves to work with the largest and most successful EV manufacturer in the world.

Guess they just care about their Union money.
 

Terry_Schiavo

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Guess Warren and the D's don't really give a shit about the environment or American jobs after all. If they did, they'd be tripping over themselves to work with the largest and most successful EV manufacturer in the world.
Guess they just care about their Union money.
Um yeah?? Biden was making a comment about "new" ports. The problem is who gets these port jobs that pay 6 figures??
 

chandler

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Rivian just announced they are building a $5B plant in Georgia. On a side note the stock has been pretty disappointing.
 

Rhino

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Rivian just announced they are building a $5B plant in Georgia. On a side note the stock has been pretty disappointing.

Dibs on being a free test driver here in Ga.. I'll do it no charge .... but they got to make them fast and Capable as part of the deal and hold Mr free of any liability :)
 

maui

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Rivian is a couple of years out from being a company I'd invest in. I didn't mind riding the IPO waive and making some money, but being a trader is not my normal m.o....however I'm not opposed to taking money off the table when it's free.

If it hits 30 though....:lol:
 

luckystrike

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At current valuation Rivian is a $75B company

Headwinds: 1) CEO was just sacked, which hints at supply chain challenges. One missed delivery and there's trouble. 2) Amazon just signed a supply deal with another EV truck maker, setting up a squeeze with Rivian 3) Ford dumps it's Rivian shares and moves the proceeds into F-150 e Truck

Because Ford is at $96B, I like Rivian at this share price.

Ford is a real dark horse here. The street is loving their EV strategy.

It's all about execution now. Between the two, whoever can deliver will be richly rewarded
 

luckystrike

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CNBC: Rivian Automotive – Shares of the electric vehicle maker rose about 4.3% after Redburn initiated coverage of the stock at a buy and said the company the best chance to “emulate” Tesla’s success.

Those buying Rivian based on the thesis it's the next Tesla may want to note that the lion's share of Tesla's success came in the absence of any meaningful competitors

Apples and oranges compared to today
 

maui

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At current valuation Rivian is a $75B company

Headwinds: 1) CEO was just sacked, which hints at supply chain challenges. One missed delivery and there's trouble. 2) Amazon just signed a supply deal with another EV truck maker, setting up a squeeze with Rivian 3) Ford dumps it's Rivian shares and moves the proceeds into F-150 e Truck

Because Ford is at $96B, I like Rivian at this share price.

Ford is a real dark horse here. The street is loving their EV strategy.

It's all about execution now. Between the two, whoever can deliver will be richly rewarded
I was Skiing at Squaw Valley this last weekend and parked infant of me was a Rivian truck. I"ve also seen them on car haulers on Hwy 80. They're getting out there slowly....very slowly.
 

luckystrike

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I was Skiing at Squaw Valley this last weekend and parked infant of me was a Rivian truck. I"ve also seen them on car haulers on Hwy 80. They're getting out there slowly....very slowly.
I've watched every youtube of the truck and gotta say I'm impressed AF

disclaimer: I've never owned a truck or know anything about them, pickup or otherwise, and haven't driven one since the early 90's when I used to haul bikes around
 

maui

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CNBC: Rivian Automotive – Shares of the electric vehicle maker rose about 4.3% after Redburn initiated coverage of the stock at a buy and said the company the best chance to “emulate” Tesla’s success.

Those buying Rivian based on the thesis it's the next Tesla may want to note that the lion's share of Tesla's success came in the absence of any meaningful competitors

Apples and oranges compared to today
Don't discount that Tesla was a stand alone EV company and did not have aging factories, product lines, labor issues, advertising costs etc..

As mentioned before, traditional car companies have a significant infrastructure challenge. If Ford were to just drop tis ICE line, how would you evaluate it? What would the share price be? What would the companies EBITA be? Market share?

I see VW as one of the companies thats making the transition well, after that I'd put money on Toyota surviving the transition. The big three US companies though...they have a lot more baggage with labor, factories needing retooling, keeping up with what keeps the lights on.

Tesla was a blank sheet and they killed it. No one is talking about their power company either. No one is talking about the ability to work around part of the chip shortages with software. You do hear some about subscription services, and little about insurance. It still appears that they have more real time road data then everyone else put together. Comparing Rivian to Tesla is not apples to apples.
 

maui

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At current valuation Rivian is a $75B company

Headwinds: 1) CEO was just sacked, which hints at supply chain challenges. One missed delivery and there's trouble. 2) Amazon just signed a supply deal with another EV truck maker, setting up a squeeze with Rivian 3) Ford dumps it's Rivian shares and moves the proceeds into F-150 e Truck

Because Ford is at $96B, I like Rivian at this share price.

Ford is a real dark horse here. The street is loving their EV strategy.

It's all about execution now. Between the two, whoever can deliver will be richly rewarded
Ford said today they are 24 months away from being able to produce 600,000 EVs a year. This is a prime example of how legacy auto makers are ham strung. They have a lot of irons in the fire, the world will transition to EV, and they're having to turn a huge industry on a dime because they've been sleeping at the wheel.

Meanwhile Tesla builds two factories in a 2021. Three if you count Shanghai (2020).

Tesla delivered 936,000 ending '21. Their [tsla] Austin factory and Berlin factory will start rolling cars out the door this month (they already are in production). Shanghai is scaling up. China sales increased 350% for 2021, out pacing all other car manufacturers combined in total sales for the month of December. Tesla just bought a 6 year supply of nickel.
 

luckystrike

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Ford said today they are 24 months away from being able to produce 600,000 EVs a year. This is a prime example of how legacy auto makers are ham strung. They have a lot of irons in the fire, the world will transition to EV, and they're having to turn a huge industry on a dime because they've been sleeping at the wheel.

Meanwhile Tesla builds two factories in a 2021. Three if you count Shanghai (2020).

Tesla delivered 936,000 ending '21. Their [tsla] Austin factory and Berlin factory will start rolling cars out the door this month (they already are in production). Shanghai is scaling up. China sales increased 350% for 2021, out pacing all other car manufacturers combined in total sales for the month of December. Tesla just bought a 6 year supply of nickel.
The street is saying it knows something about Ford that you and I don't know. Look at the 12 month. F has almost 2.5X
 

tinhead

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There were just short of 15 million autos sold in AmeRica in 2021.
Add up 936,000 Teslas, some Bolts and leafs blowing around, and a layer of plug in hybrids, probably two million cars were sold with a plug not a gaspipe.

With the ramping up of electrics, it looks likely that one car in four sold here this year will have a plug. I have the feeling that sales of gasoline are on their way to a decline even from the already lower than 2019 covid levels.

Oh, yeah, rivian. The only reason rivian exists is to get bought, or to "merge" with a legacy automaker. What would another auto company pay for rivian, even adding in a usual 25-40% premium paid for shares in a buyout, I don't believe it will approach $100/share.
 
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luckystrike

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Oh, yeah, rivian. The only reason rivian exists is to get bought, or to "merge" with a legacy automaker. What would another auto company pay for rivian, even adding in a usual 25-40% premium paid for shares in a buyout, I don't believe it will approach $100/share.
Did a quick scan of auto market valuations and there's only one legacy player that could absorb Rivian at the current share price = Toyota

After its recent dive, Rivian is $73B, add in a buyout premium so bump it to $100B, and 'yota would be stretched so thin were they to make a play for Rivian that the company would be vulnerable beyond any reasonable risk appetite
 

luckystrike

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TSLA earnings call on Jan 26 and the Cybertruck product roadmap is expected to feature heavily as reservation holders are becoming impatient

Rumor mill has it that TSLA can't get its mitts on the Cybertruck batteries

Whatever the reason for the missed Q3/4 2021 release, you Rivian bag holders might want to pay attention as what will be disclosed could move the market
 

luckystrike

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Confirmed yesterday, no Cybertruck this year

Further, TSLA won't be releasing ANY new models this year, blaming it on supply chain

TSLA has managed through China flu supply chain issues better than most so when they start to struggle, it's spooking investors in all the EV players

Let's see how many Cybertruck pre-orders get cancelled
 

rumble phish

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I wish there were supply chain issues with soy so grown men would stop wanting electric cars.
Whether you like it or not, ICE vehicles, at least for the daily drivers, are soon going to be relegated to history. You sound like the folks who were bemoaning the advent of motorized carriages and saying "My horse is better than any 'automobile' because it doesn't need gasoline! And where are folks going to get this gasoline? Are they going to build 'stations' on every street corner where you'll be able to pump this stuff right out of a tank that's buried underground!? Preposterous!!"
 

TR3B

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Whether you like it or not, ICE vehicles, at least for the daily drivers, are soon going to be relegated to history. You sound like the folks who were bemoaning the advent of motorized carriages and saying "My horse is better than any 'automobile' because it doesn't need gasoline! And where are folks going to get this gasoline? Are they going to build 'stations' on every street corner where you'll be able to pump this stuff right out of a tank that's buried underground!? Preposterous!!"
That is the most retarded goddamned argument for electric vs gas that I've ever heard and fucking retards keep repeating it. If I had to shovel shit out of my garage every time I parked my car, feed it 3 times a day and ride on top of it in the rain, cold and snow maybe you'd have a point.

Lick those government boots if you want but battery powered cars are NOT an improvement, they're a mandate from the same communists who gave us LED lightbulbs, mass immigration, wind farms and social security.
 

Anal Disco

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That is the most retarded goddamned argument for electric vs gas that I've ever heard and fucking retards keep repeating it. If I had to shovel shit out of my garage every time I parked my car, feed it 3 times a day and ride on top of it in the rain, cold and snow maybe you'd have a point.

Lick those government boots if you want but battery powered cars are NOT an improvement, they're a mandate from the same communists who gave us LED lightbulbs, mass immigration, wind farms and social security.
What do you have against LED light bulbs?
 

TR3B

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What do you have against LED light bulbs?
They flicker, they're harsh, they're ugly, they're expensive and they're not an improvement over what we had before. Kinda like electric cars. And wasn't the entire purpose of LED lightbulbs to "conserve energy"? Now they want everyone cruising around in 6,000 pound Playskool toys that need to feed off the grid constantly. Explain the logic behind any of the nonsense. The argument for electric cars makes about as much sense as the argument for taking the vaccine.
 

luckystrike

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Ohio Department of Transportation saved a bunch of money by upgrading traffic signal lights to LED bulbs. :up:
Worked great :up::up: until the first snowstorm, when nobody could see the lights because they were covered with snow. :red:
.
This was a problem with cars with adoption of LED head/brake lights thanks to nincompoops who don't clear snow off their cars and accustomed to bulb heat melting it off
 

luckystrike

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They flicker, they're harsh, they're ugly, they're expensive and they're not an improvement over what we had before. Kinda like electric cars. And wasn't the entire purpose of LED lightbulbs to "conserve energy"? Now they want everyone cruising around in 6,000 pound Playskool toys that need to feed off the grid constantly. Explain the logic behind any of the nonsense. The argument for electric cars makes about as much sense as the argument for taking the vaccine.
Baby black Jebus just stop dude...

I swapped all my halogen pot lights to LED and NEVER going back

The only place I won't swap is for the Christmas tree where the old school clear white bulbs have that point-like sparkle the LED doesn't have

Re EV's

I said on another thread I hate EV's with a passion. Shit, I probably drive to most opposite on the spectrum ICE car (which I will never sell). But if I ever need another car for utility, it's EV all the way
 

Vicious_Cycle

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This was a problem with cars with adoption of LED head/brake lights thanks to nincompoops who don't clear snow off their cars and accustomed to bulb heat melting it off
I live in snow country and I take my duty to clean snow off my car seriously.
However, it may shock you to learn that people drive their cars while it is snowing. When they do so, LED taillights soon become nearly invisible, creating a hazard for no good reason.
.
 

wormser77

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Baby black Jebus just stop dude...

I swapped all my halogen pot lights to LED and NEVER going back

The only place I won't swap is for the Christmas tree where the old school clear white bulbs have that point-like sparkle the LED doesn't have

Re EV's

I said on another thread I hate EV's with a passion. Shit, I probably drive to most opposite on the spectrum ICE car (which I will never sell). But if I ever need another car for utility, it's EV all the way
All my friends who grow commerial had led companies let them trial their lights...... none use them even with what the power savings would be.
 

Vicious_Cycle

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But if I ever need another car for utility, it's EV all the way
When the windmills stop working and your EV battery runs out of energy, and the fucking grid is down, and you are trapped in your condo, fear not, men with diesel-powered trucks will come and rescue you... sooner or later :up::up:
.
 

luckystrike

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I have about 40 pot lights in this joint

Swapped from halogen to LED not so much to save money but because the halogens run so fucking hot. If I was in the WC shaving by the mirror I could feel the heat from the overhead halogen bulbs pouring down on me

There's a hagrid hagrid joke in there somewhere...not sure what it is
 

Vicious_Cycle

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Now they want everyone cruising around in 6,000 pound Playskool toys that need to feed off the grid constantly.
And every one of them has 16 headlights that can burn your retinas out from a half mile away. And then they have a few hundred decorative LEDs around those lights, just because.
Have they since fixed it?
Yeah, that was years ago. They went right back to incandescent lights at the time. No idea what they are using these days. I'm assuming the snow melt problem was resolved long ago.

90229
.
 

Stetson

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I got a text from Ford over this past weekend, that it was finally time to order my F150 Lightning. Followed up by a call from the dealership Monday morning. :up:

Ironically, I actually got the text right when I walked in the door from picking up my new to me, '85 GMC K3500 with a 6.2 Cadillac swap, 4.10s and a 5 speed. I seem to be getting around 7.2 mpg with it.

Any real motorhead should be interested in electrics. When gas cars were invented, you had to buy gas in cans at the hardware store, if you could find it. It got more convenient over time. Electrics will too.


Yin and Yang...

 
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