RIVN: Buy It Now

luckystrike

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$100B and all they have going is 50,000 pre-orders, which will be delayed due to 'supply chain' issues

Nothing has been delivered

These guys are the poster boys of irrational exuberance

The only thing you're betting on here is momentum. Nothing wrong with that. Just bet what you're willing to lose

(Note the above is not financial advice)
 

tinhead

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Surviving as a standalone company isn't in the plan.
If the stock sinks in price, it'll be gobbled up by Renault or some chinky Kung pow motor company. Even if it sinks to $5, Amazon, T. Rowe Price, and Ford still make money.

The hefty stock price may be used as collateral to get the Rivian insurance operation off the ground, do a Welch at G.E. industrial to financial services transformation. Buying a troubled automaker like Nissan from Renault, or fukkit go after Ford with more borrowed money is another path.
 

chandler

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Crazy. RIVN has a market cap greater than Ford. I own F, HMC, FSR and NIO but no TSLA or RIVN. I'm obviously not the smartest investor out there but I get by.:biggrin1a:
 

maui

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I can't get behind this one

$100B valuation with $0 revenue
investing v speculation. It's speculation. No different than buying bitcoin.

Dameon -

Last time you posted something like this you were 100% spot on. Care to share your analysis on why to buy now? Not looking for your methods on how came to the conclusion just a little insight.

Thanks
Scott, the way you (most people here) invest and the way Dameon can invest are not the same. His "analysis" has as much to do with your investing, as Mark Marquez telling you how he does an at lean crossed up power wheelie out of a turn. Dameon (and he can correct me) has an extremely diverse view of the market which includes long term investing and short term speculation trading strategies.

RIVN having (basically) no revenue is a speculation play...but....Amazon owning a 19% stake and having an order for 100,000 vehicles over the next ten years cant be dismissed. Comparing it to Ford is tricky. Ford I think is Rivian's second largest holder(?) They snaked GM (who invested in Nikola instead) on that deal so there's legitimate industry interest. RIVN is as of today the 4th largest market cap in the auto industry with (little to) no product. I did see an auto transport with a bunch of Rivian trucks on it recently which makes me suspect the 0 revenue part is about to change. If RIVN is going to crush Ford it will have to drag them along with them.

Traditional car companies have to keep building ICE products to maintain margins. EV companies are free from this. Is that a competitive advantage? I think so. Also where Rivian is different then Tesla is their focus on commercial delivery vans. Tesla is going forward with the Semi trucks and I think thats a pretty good move. TSLA however has not made any news in the medium delivery market. It's not to say they can't just that they haven't.

Is Rivian the next Tesla? I don't think so, but I could be wrong. Is it the next NKLA, unlikely.

Full disclosure, I have a small tracking position in RIVN.
 
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luckystrike

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investing v speculation. It's speculation. No different than buying bitcoin.



Scott, the way you (most people here) invest and the way Dameon can invest are not the same. His "analysis" has as much to do with your investing, as Mark Marquez telling you how he does an at lean crossed up power wheelie out of a turn. Dameon (and he can correct me) has an extremely diverse view of the market which includes long term investing and short term speculation trading strategies.

RIVN having (basically) no revenue is a speculation play...but....Amazon owning a 19% stake and having an order for 100,000 vehicles over the next ten years cant be dismissed. Comparing it to Ford is tricky. Ford I think is Vivian's second largest holder(?) They snaked GM (who invested in Nikola instead) on that deal so there's legitimate industry interest. RIVN is as of today the 4th largest market cap in the auto industry with (little to) no product. I did see an auto transport with a bunch of Rivian trucks on it recently which makes me suspect the 0 revenue part is about to change. If RIVN is going to crush Ford it will have to drag them along with them.

Traditional car companies have to keep building ICE products to maintain margins. EV companies are free from this. Is that a competitive advantage? I think so. Also where Rivian is different then Tesla is their focus on commercial delivery vans. Tesla is going forward with the Semi trucks and I think thats a pretty good move. TSLA however has not made any news in the medium delivery market. It's not to say they can't just that they haven't.

Is Rivian the next Tesla? I don't think so, but I could be wrong. Is it the next NKLA, unlikely.

Full disclosure, I have a small tracking position in RIVN.
Find it hard to believe GM management hasn't been sacked over the Nikola debacle

Their 'investment' does speak to the hype driving this market to chase unicorns



The challenge to RIVN isn't the product itself (hardware is ctrl-c ctrl-v), but collecting real world data which is the key differentiator for an EV maker

TSLA has nearly a decades worth of real world use data collected


Here's how I see the AMZN commitment going...in 5 years RIVN falling dreadfully behind on its fleet obligation, AMZN divests and sources instead from TSLA or a China maker

Speculative play...by all means. Not for me, I'll watch this one from the sidelines
 

Stites

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investing v speculation. It's speculation. No different than buying bitcoin.



Scott, the way you (most people here) invest and the way Dameon can invest are not the same. His "analysis" has as much to do with your investing, as Mark Marquez telling you how he does an at lean crossed up power wheelie out of a turn. Dameon (and he can correct me) has an extremely diverse view of the market which includes long term investing and short term speculation trading strategies.

RIVN having (basically) no revenue is a speculation play...but....Amazon owning a 19% stake and having an order for 100,000 vehicles over the next ten years cant be dismissed. Comparing it to Ford is tricky. Ford I think is Vivian's second largest holder(?) They snaked GM (who invested in Nikola instead) on that deal so there's legitimate industry interest. RIVN is as of today the 4th largest market cap in the auto industry with (little to) no product. I did see an auto transport with a bunch of Rivian trucks on it recently which makes me suspect the 0 revenue part is about to change. If RIVN is going to crush Ford it will have to drag them along with them.

Traditional car companies have to keep building ICE products to maintain margins. EV companies are free from this. Is that a competitive advantage? I think so. Also where Rivian is different then Tesla is their focus on commercial delivery vans. Tesla is going forward with the Semi trucks and I think thats a pretty good move. TSLA however has not made any news in the medium delivery market. It's not to say they can't just that they haven't.

Is Rivian the next Tesla? I don't think so, but I could be wrong. Is it the next NKLA, unlikely.

Full disclosure, I have a small tracking position in RIVN.
Thanks for that vantage point my friend, much appreciated. I asked the question because I am trying to get as many perspectives on investing as possible. Currently I have a really excellent teacher and he has never steered me wrong. That said I feel like I owe it to myself to educate myself in as many ways possible.

With that I agree Dameon is on a completely different level than I am and how I currently invest.
 
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maui

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Find it hard to believe GM management hasn't been sacked over the Nikola debacle

Their 'investment' does speak to the hype driving this market to chase unicorns



The challenge to RIVN isn't the product itself (hardware is ctrl-c ctrl-v), but collecting real world data which is the key differentiator for an EV maker

TSLA has nearly a decades worth of real world use data collected


Here's how I see the AMZN commitment going...in 5 years RIVN falling dreadfully behind on its fleet obligation, AMZN divests and sources instead from TSLA or a China maker

Speculative play...by all means. Not for me, I'll watch this one from the sidelines
fair assessment

the GM deal was an embarrassment, as is Trevor Milton currently indicted for fraud. It's like they weren't even trying...
 

luckystrike

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Thanks for that vantage point my friend, much appreciated. I asked the question because I am trying to get as many perspectives on investing as possible. Currently I have a really excellent teacher and he has never steered me wrong. That said I feel like I owe it to myself to educate myself in as many ways possible.

With that I agree Dameon is on a completely different level than I am and how I currently invest.
Cathie Wood is staying the fuck away from it
 

luckystrike

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fair assessment

the GM deal was an embarrassment, as is Trevor Milton currently indicted for fraud. It's like they weren't even trying...
I watched a 30 minute piece on Milton

Having worked with people doing enterprise scale M&A and watching their due-diligence, I am in disbelief that snake-oil salesmen got as far as he did in his other ventures and in even more disbelief GM invested and why Mary still has her job
 

maui

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I watched a 30 minute piece on Milton

Having worked with people doing enterprise scale M&A and watching their due-diligence, I am in disbelief that snake-oil salesmen got as far as he did in his other ventures and in even more disbelief GM invested and why Mary still has her job
I was pretty much ignoring NKLA until Stites asked me about it. I watched Milton talk for about 5minutes and I think I told Scott "that guy is going to jail
 

luckystrike

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Just something to chew on...

Tesla was valued at $1.7B when the Model S was already rolling off the assembly lines and after 2 years of roadster sales

RIVN is already at $120B yet months away from delivering a single product

Even somebody like me that speculates in crypto miners will say...we are living in batshit crazy times

If (when?) this house of cards comes tumbling down, 2008 will feel like a missed CC payment by comparison lol
 

Stites

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Just something to chew on...

Tesla was valued at $1.7B when the Model S was already rolling off the assembly lines and after 2 years of roadster sales

RIVN is already at $120B yet months away from delivering a single product

Even somebody like me that speculates in crypto miners will say...we are living in batshit crazy times

If (when?) this house of cards comes tumbling down, 2008 will feel like a missed CC payment by comparison lol
Is your profile pic the SHIB logo?
 
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Dameon

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Last time you posted something like this you were 100% spot on. Care to share your analysis on why to buy now? Not looking for your methods on how came to the conclusion just a little insight.
Always glad to share my insights. Maui is spot on with most of his analysis... of me and of the industry. It's not always about the value of a tangible product... not from an investing point of view. It's about market perception. Rivian has some strong corporate backers. They are unlikely to fail, but that also doesn't mean they are going to have exponential growth in a short time like TSLA. My thought was to get in, let the hype run it up and secure my investment. Use the remaining shares as a long bet. To that point...

I bought 200 shares at $85. I had my buy bid in 24 hours earlier and Etrade is usually top tier on IPOs. They failed me this time. I should have gotten my shares at $78. Not sure how that happened. Buddy of mine uses R1 and he got shares at $78, but not the full lot he wanted. That's a more likely scenario based on how IPO shares are divvied up between brokers. Anyway, there was a little surge near the end of the trading day and I sold 100 shares at $121. I ended up leaving a couple dollars on the table. Sometimes you get just close enough. I'm now into RIVN for 100 shares at an "out of pocket" cost of $4900... $49 a share is unlikely to cause me a loss.

I would have gone bigger (the hype was obvious), but I've been rolling a fair amount of short capital into plunging TSLA prices. When it dropped to $1000 (and lower) yesterday, I was buying the heck out of it. 24 hours later, it's closing at $1063. When it makes its way back to $1200+ in a week, I'll be content with another five figures to play with.
 
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Dameon

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As usual, Maui's observations are spot-on.

Traditional car companies have to keep building ICE products to maintain margins. EV companies are free from this. Is that a competitive advantage?
Yes, the encumbrance on ICE manufacturers current production quotas (along with staggering pension payments) makes them far less agile. Agility in the current market is key. Too many variables changing right now... Government regulations and incentives, battery technology, consumer sentiment.

Also where Rivian is different then Tesla is their focus on commercial delivery vans. Tesla is going forward with the Semi trucks and I think thats a pretty good move. TSLA however has not made any news in the medium delivery market.
Tesla has made some interesting market segment moves. I can't say I would have done things the same way, but I won't say it didn't work for them. Yes, inner city delivery is the perfect market for EVs. I'm not sure why that isn't more tapped. I would have preferred seeing Tesla invest effort into that market rather than the Semi. They have paid lip service to the delivery market, even "leaking" prototype sketchings of model designs. There are discussions for sure... Elon Musk puts Tesla Van on the EV automaker's to-do list

Full disclosure, I have a small tracking position in RIVN.
:lol: I caught that...
 

luckystrike

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Looks like Ford is on the verge of bailing out of the partnership

Some saying they should dump their stake and put the proceeds towards the F150 EV
 

maui

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Looks like Ford is on the verge of bailing out of the partnership

Some saying they should dump their stake and put the proceeds towards the F150 EV
where did you see that?

Ford has about 12% which cost them 820m, that position is significantly up currently worth about 11.3B
 

luckystrike

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where did you see that?

Ford has about 12% which cost them 820m, that position is significantly up currently worth about 11.3B
Yahoo finance

It’s been debated ever since the IPO. Analysts saying they should run and plow the 11B into their own programs
 

luckystrike

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Speculating, but I have a hard time believing this wasn't the plan from the get go.
Ford bought in many years ago and I doubt they would’ve foreseen the madness that is today’s market which yielded such a mega gain

Back then they also didn’t know what the fuck they were doing in the EV space. Pundits saying that ain’t the case no more and they can roll their own now

They might also be reading the tea leaves thinking a broader market crash is coming
 

luckystrike

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All it would take is for Amazon to even hint at a diminished stake and this will go to $30, which is what it’s worth and I’m being generous
 

luckystrike

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this is where the Ford - Rivian relationship gets interesting...

Recreational vehicle rental company Outdoorsy Inc. is in talks with Rivian Automotive Inc. and Ford Motor Co. to order $100 million in electric trucks and SUVs over the coming years to build out its fleet

Now that the collaboration is DOA, what happens next? Seems like a real pickle for Ford so I see them completely severing ties meaning dumping their shares sooner rather than later
 

maui

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my guess is that Ford (as would Amazon) is going to need permission (which would be granted) to sell shares from the FTC
 
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