Log price v. Lumber price

WP

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Commercial fishing is dead for me. The fisheries I did won't support the expense of operation, and, my boat is obsolete because of that. My boat is dry docked.
You should re profile your fishing ventures and move to Maine.
The guys here are banking pulling up lobster pots
 

sailUSVI

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A bit delusional there tinny, the shit we are in and suffering from comes solely from the demorats and Bidet, just wait till capital gsuns goes from 15% to over %40....we had an outstanding economy under Trump and it was growing. What a fucking mess this bozo had made of our country and it’s far from over.

We're recovering from the trumpy economic disaster. There's always shortages of something during a recovery.
 

Terry_Schiavo

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I'll keep that in mine. I'm lucky that I don't need to worry about buying in bulk.
lowes gives 10% off with the drop of a hat. You can buy 15 & 20% coupons for cheap.
Just FYI... zip board & tape are the shit. OSB is cheaper but when you factor in the addition of WPB (tyvek) you
come out ahead with the zip system. Zip offers first time users discounts.
OSB $36/sheet
Tyvek $85/ roll (plus staples or button caps

Zip $44 sheet
Tape $30/roll

Zip already has the weather proof barrier impregnated on 1 side. The butyl tape is for the seams...
works pretty good for sheathing/drying a project in. Use it as roof decking along with the tape plus typical roof synthetic along with shingles... a leak free roof guaranteed.
 

Terry_Schiavo

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A bit delusional there tinny, the shit we are in and suffering from comes solely from the demorats and Bidet, just wait till capital gsuns goes from 15% to over %40....we had an outstanding economy under Trump and it was growing. What a fucking mess this bozo had made of our country and it’s far from over.
Exactly... heres what a "wage" earner will never understand. Capital gains sucks! :fu: Same with estate taxes. Its no mistake tax attorneys and accountants tend to be on the liberal side. Hence my contempt for that field... but just like anyone they are hustling just at a higher less inclusive level.
 

RobBase

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What do you mean?
Do you think they're stockpiling it before the price gets even worse? :eek:
.
I don't know, but if you were the purchasing agent for Lowe's and no one is buying OSB at $43/sheet, would you order 50 more hacks at that price?
Unless either they are now getting it at half that price and trying to make a killing or, like you said, maybe the price is going to go even higher.
Either way, I don't see many people rolling carts out with either OSB or plywood on them.
 

WP

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Was at Home Depot earlier...
Im in the process of drawing out a deck for the house.

Think im doing the decking in this stuff...
$20 a piece but you ain t ever gotta worry about it ever once installed...ain t much more than pressure treated

63462
63463
 

kawachan

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My buddy built his deck around his pool out of that exact stuff end of last year. He needed a box and a half of it last trip to finish the job. Kids working there were too lazy (plus it's heavy as crap) to pull out what he needed. So they just loaded two whole boxes in his trailer with the forklift.
 

Vicious_Cycle

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Composite decking is the way to go, for sure. I love mine. :up:

My daughters were young when I built my deck. I intentionally tightened up the gaps between deck boards so they couldn't lose little toys or whatever between the boards. I figured that stuff would never swell, so tight gaps were fine. 16 years later, I can say for sure that stuff does swell. My gaps are tight enough to catch dirt, essentially closing the gaps entirely. Learn from my mistakes.

I don't recall the brand name, but it's whatever Lowe's was selling in 2006. The profile is different from the stuff you're looking at, and mine is less colorful. That stuff is pretty. :up::up: Hopefully the color won't fade on you. Mine turned a completely different color within a year.
.
 

Terry_Schiavo

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Was at Home Depot earlier...
Im in the process of drawing out a deck for the house.

Think im doing the decking in this stuff...
$20 a piece but you ain t ever gotta worry about it ever once installed...ain t much more than pressure treated
I would do the hidden fastener thing for sure. Looks so much nicer.
 

Rocco

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It seems there are huge amounts of lumber being stock piled in freight yards and retail lots. This guy thinks the lumber market is doing the same thing Carvana did with YCIS's truck, recklessly inflating prices to make a greater profit. Even in housing, one out of five houses is being purchased by pension funds to roll over quick profit and cash in on the boom _ it's ultimately the snake swallowing it's own tail


-
 
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Some speculators say prices will drop in 2022, others say this summer. It will never go back down to what it was.
When you have too much stock of something, you need to run a sale. Their high demand theory is bullshit on a lot of items. The retailers still think it's too early and spring will bring more lumber demand. Not sure how that's gonna work out for them, the free money is drying up.
 

Vicious_Cycle

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I wouldn't expect it to fall more than 25% in the next year.
The good ole days are gone.
I believe you're correct, but hope not.

Lately I've been getting sticker shock from everything, it seems. For example, I planned to score a decent riding mower battery for a little project I'm doing (nothing interesting), figured it would be $30-35. Just looked it up at Advance Auto's website, and it's $60 + core, and none of the usual discount codes apply.
Walmart has one with only 230 CCA for $20 according to their website. May have to run over there, even though I don't normally do business with them...
.
 
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I believe you're correct, but hope not.

Lately I've been getting sticker shock from everything, it seems. For example, I planned to score a decent riding mower battery for a little project I'm doing (nothing interesting), figured it would be $30-35. Just looked it up at Advance Auto's website, and it's $60 + core, and none of the usual discount codes apply.
Walmart has one with only 230 CCA for $20 according to their website. May have to run over there, even though I don't normally do business with them...
.
I noticed the big three bend your ass over on a battery now.
Rural King if you have one around you, it's an Exide battery. They are around the price we think is fair. Even Menards beats the big 3 auto parts houses.
 

Vicious_Cycle

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I have a Tractor Supply nearby. Didn't even think of them until I read your post just now.
I ran over to Walmart and picked up one up for $20.
Picked up some Meguiar's products while I was there... dropped $75 including a $12 battery core. :screama:
.
 

Terry_Schiavo

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I was at home depot yesterday, looked at lumber prices :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
2 x 8 x 12 $48!!!!
I'm glad I bought the lumber for my workbenches 10 months ago.
Well I bought 2 sheets of 3/4" plywood and 10 2x12x16s... then cut them up and lit them on fire!
I took the ashes back to HD and they gave me a store credit!!
 

Rusty Nuts

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sailUSVI

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I just got a price for a metal carport with a shed/pitch roof, 4,200 sq ft. a fairly simple build. No slab just 4X4 steel posts, purlins, metal roof etc…$54,000 bucks, last year it was priced at $21,000

if you don’t think these crazy prices are going to blow apart the robust economy we are in think again. The builder said people are not going ahead with projects and he is going to be slow…very slow. Just like home builders, I’m afraid its coming
 
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This is what happens when the big timber companies get a monopoly. No federal timber is being sold, so theres no source for logs for private mills that dont have timberland.

Its not about an election, its about the greenpeople putting all the competition out of business via their failed environmental policies.

Thats my opinion.
 
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I’m bordered on one side by 3500 acres of timber owned by a small to mid size outfit called Jupiter timber, within a 25 mile radius there are at least ten other small timber companies that own tracts of a thousand to five thousand acres, some under a thousand, all of them have pulled out pretty much everything they could in the last 6 months to get it to market before it pops. This is significant because Georgia is the nations third largest timber producing state by volume, and it’s sad to see the devastation without any regulatory mandate to replant, the further out into the rural counties you go, the more devastation you see, unless it’s private or protected somehow, chances are it’s been harvested. To your point, all we have around here are small to mid size timber outfits.
 
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Snail

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Optimus, sadly, most of the timber in oregon is owned by the Federal Govt. That timber is locked up through litigation brought by greenpeople and has largely been destroyrd by fires that are allowed to burn.

Worse, its not replanted, its up to nature to deal with the burned over mess.

What timber is privately owned, comes under the direction of the state forestry dept, and we have rules, The Oregon Forest Practice Act is the most stringent in the nation, and was the model for the National Forest Practice regulations, but the southern states dilluted the Act before it passed.

The Federal timberland committed to wilderness areas is exempt from any obligation to reforest after a fire.

Your neighbors, and the other timber owners, are they milling the timber or selling it to Georgia Pacific, Lousiana Pacific, Weyerhauser or other big wood product producers?
.
 

Wretch

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To get an idea how crazy this getting :
Sold a rental on a sketchy street last year.
Turned out to be a good call.
New landlord put up a new 6 ft wood fence around the property. ( Ya see this coming...)
Low lifes stole the entire fence at the rear by
cutting the 4 by 4 posts with a Sawzall and took it all in sections.
They forgot to run a hot 90amp line through the 4 by 4's.
 
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Another significant factor to this situation is the low cost of money. Im seeing ads for 2% mortgage money.

With money that cheap its probably easier to accept the high price of building materials.
 
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Snail Snail I think they are using local mills to get it to build grade lumber, I would have to google this but I think weyerhauser has the biggest chunk in the state overall, they do everything from harvest to selling finished products directly to homeowners, they are also very political, with full time lobbyists in washington year round.
 
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Looks like lumber contract price is declining. A commodity listing, LBOO, for future contracts appears bear like.

I suggest holding off on any major building plans and see where it goes...currently declining like a meme stock.
 

tinhead

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Recovering from depression level economic ruination will be uneven.
It'll probably be a while before a cartful at Home Depot costs 60% what it did at the start of the month.
 
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I expect LIFO v. FIFO inventory depletion will determine retail price.
 

sailUSVI

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BIggerDanno

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Lumber prices log biggest–ever weekly drop but analysts see long-term strength
Jun. 11, 2021 7:47 PM ETCUT, LB1:COM...By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor47 Comments

Logs in forest
Taiyou Nomachi/DigitalVision via Getty Images

  • Lumber futures fell 18% this week in the biggest weekly decline for most-active futures in records going back to 1986, as analysts say buyers are balking at still historically high prices and awaiting additional supplies.
  • Lumber (LB1:COM) closed -5.6% in Chicago to $1,059.20 per 1,000 board feet on Friday. but futures traded mostly in the $200-$600 range before the rally that started in mid-2020.
  • Sawmills appear to be catching up with heavy homebuilding demand in North America that fueled the rally; trade publication Random Lengths reports further declines in several wood products that trade on the cash market, also pointing to plenty of mill offerings.
  • But with strong U.S. homebuilding expected for several more years, lumber prices should stay above $500 per 1,000 board feet for the next 5-8 years, says Scott Reaves of Domain Timber Advisors.
  • "Nosebleed prices won't last, but strong demand, a limited supply response and a rising cost curve all point to above-trend prices for at least the next 12-24 months," BMO analyst Mark Wilde believes.
 
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BIggerDanno

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As if lumber didn't need another reason to fall...

Ag stocks dry up as Fed rate view scares investors off commodities
Jun. 17, 2021 12:30 PM ETCAT, DBA...By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor16 Comments

Farm Tractors working on sugar cane harvest plantation aerial view
Murilo Gualda /iStock via Getty Images


I've been waiting for CAT to fall. Another 20% and I'm in.
 
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