iran

   #1  

hedgehog

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now, first things first, this is not meant to be a `left v right thing´, rather looking at what is currently happening. from an objective perspective.

the trump administration has said they will be tightening sanctions (beginning of may) to attempt to bring iran´s oil revenue down to zero - this is a taken and the rights or wrongs of it are not the point of what this discussion is about, rather potential scenarios.

iran has previously stated that if they are prevented from selling oil, then they will shut down the straights of hormuz. this would be an action that would not be able to go unanswered as 35% of oil transported by sea goes that way. nuclear weapons would not be used against iran, so lets keep things in the real world.

it is estimated that iran could only keep the straights shut down for 5 days before u.s. military intervention allowed it to be re-opened, and that´s probably the biggest estimate of the timeframe.

this then brings up the following question - would the hawks (Bolton, Pompeyo, etc) push for actual ground forces to enter iran calling their action a declaration of war and attempt regime change by military force?

if they did, the iranians know full well they could not fight land or air battles and stand a snowballs chance in hell of winning, so would they go for asymetric warfare and hit u.s. interests in the region hard rather than attempting to go head to head. sort of a hard strike insurgency instead of a direct head to head?

next question - who would be the main players?

it would be expected that saudí and Israel would back the u.s, and syria would back iran.....but that then opens another problem inasmuch as the last military base russia has in the area is in syria (the reason they backed assad so strongly) and they would not entertain the idea of that falling into allied hands.

so, looking at this from your own perspective, how do you see this playing out?

lets stay in the real world and not go on about glass carparks though!
 
   #6  

maui

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Your observations appear to be based on the fear of conflict. Not that conflict is a good thing far from it, and peaceful resolutions are generally preferable. But, and this is hypothetical just like your questions are, if you are afraid of your enemy and they know it, what chance of success do you have in negotiating something that is mutually beneficial?
 
   #8  
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hedgehog

hedgehog

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Your observations appear to be based on the fear of conflict. Not that conflict is a good thing far from it, and peaceful resolutions are generally preferable. But, and this is hypothetical just like your questions are, if you are afraid of your enemy and they know it, what chance of success do you have in negotiating something that is mutually beneficial?
not fear, just listening to a discussion this evening about what could happen.

basically there will be no peaceful resolution without regime change because that would be looked upon as backing down.
 
   #12  

BigHock

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There is not a chance of Iran closing the Straight down, so non sequitur. Iran will continue its black market sale of oil. Russia will literally suck that shit up... Regime change will come from within. US led but real hush, hush shit.
 
   #15  

RobBase

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Sorry for you, but Obama's red line was not about nuclear agreements.


"The issue was Obama’s chemical weapons “red line” in Syria, an ultimatum that led Obama to threaten the use of force against the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad before ultimately accepting a peaceful resolution. Although Obama defends the outcome, critics in both parties — including three former Obama defense secretaries — accuse him of dangerous indecision and lack of resolve. Trump has called the episode a national “humiliation.”
Trump told the debate audience that the episode “was laughed at all over the world, what happened,” and he sought to pin it directly on Clinton.
“She was there as secretary of state with the so-called line in the sand,” the Republican nominee said, in an apparent reference to what is usually called Obama’s “red line.” " - Politico.
 
   #16  

RobBase

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Next, explain how Iran could actually shut down the Straits of Hormuz.
I'm sure that before Trump gives Iran the finger, the military would have all assets in place to prevent Iran's navy from any action
in addition to targeting any land based missles they might use.
Not only that but do you think China would like to have their oil imports restricted?
 
   #17  

llord2

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"Paint the skies black with bombers...."
 
   #18  

DungBeatle

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If Iran targets oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, then shipping insurance rates will skyrocket, some 400%. Then oil prices will rise along with it.
 
   #19  

Wretch

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There will be smoking holes where their launch sites and tracking radar used to be and more smoking holes where their bases and military ports are, first.

Anything military in the sky will be found on the ground as well.
 
   #22  

RobBase

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There will be smoking holes where their launch sites and tracking radar used to be and more smoking holes where their bases and military ports are, first.

Anything military in the sky will be found on the ground as well.
I like that description................"smoking holes."

Can I use that Wretch?

As in, everytime hedgehog opens his mouth it's just another smoking hole!
As in, everytime hedgehog's boyfriend pulls out, he leaves another smoking hole!!
 
   #23  

Wretch

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I like that description................"smoking holes."

Can I use that Wretch?

As in, everytime hedgehog opens his mouth it's just another smoking hole!
As in, everytime hedgehog's boyfriend pulls out, he leaves another smoking hole!!

I don't mind but, he's just showing how he feels/thinks about certain subjects.
He's allowed to say/think anything just the same as you and I.
I don't agree with his stance on a few things but, I don't feel good about segregating him for it.

It would be easy to do but, it only serves to alienate both of us and he's already expressed a willingness to share his beers...
...and I don't want to fuck that up.
I guess I'm a cheap whore for that fact.
I do enjoy drinking the beer though.
 
   #25  
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hedgehog

hedgehog

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Next, explain how Iran could actually shut down the Straits of Hormuz.
simple - all they have to say is that it is mined at it´s narrowest point (21nm and you can see from one side to the other), and no sea traffic will move through there until the the threat is confirmed as being false.

hell, a fast boat dumping concrete filled 50 gallon oil drums (which would sink to the bottom and be difficult to see) showing up on spyplane photos would be enough to stop traffic instantly and would cost very little.

it´s the same as an airport can be shut down due to a phoned in threat - the threat doesn´t need to be real, but all the time the potential threat exists, nothing gets done.
 
   #26  
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hedgehog

hedgehog

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I don't mind but, he's just showing how he feels/thinks about certain subjects.
He's allowed to say/think anything just the same as you and I.
I don't agree with his stance on a few things but, I don't feel good about segregating him for it.

It would be easy to do but, it only serves to alienate both of us and he's already expressed a willingness to share his beers...
...and I don't want to fuck that up.
I guess I'm a cheap whore for that fact.
I do enjoy drinking the beer though.
don´t sweat it wretch, i find it amusing that i have a stalker.

it´s probably stockholm syndrome from him spending so much time being my bitch.
 
   #27  

Wretch

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don´t sweat it wretch, i find it amusing that i have a stalker.

it´s probably stockholm syndrome from him spending so much time being my bitch.
Not sweating anything here.
I've just gotten to the point where even if what someone says is physically repulsive to my mind; it doesn't mean I have to expend the energy to hate them.
I've seldom if ever seen ridiculing anyone about their perspective do any good for anybody, outside of a clinical setting.

I do enjoy a good ribbing of someone as long as it's done in good spirits though.
We had some of that at the reunion and it was great stuff.

Being back at home has been a huge anticlimax and I'd like to have had more time to fuck around and bullshit with everyone who came down.

I guess the phrase: "This ain't no fucking dress rehearsal!" is becoming more clear to me every day.

How else should I look at our existence here?

It is kind of funny how you both get on each other's tits, though.
 
   #29  

gobrian77

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Iran fucked up shipping in the Strait in the 1980s using rubber boats and old mines during the Iran/Iraq War- they could certainly do it for at least a short period (definitely long enough to screw up the oil market in the short-term) with the much-improved military they have today. They couldn't keep it closed very long in the face of US intervention, and the price for doing it is likely more than they'd be willing to pay, but they have the capability to shut it down.

Their threats are most likely sabre-rattling, but they have to be taken seriously. Hedge is correct here- a private company is going to be a bit hesitant to send a tanker holding 1,000,000+ barrels of oil down a narrow waterway that might be mined.
 
   #37  

Master-Cylinder

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By the way, the I in Iran on the header should be capitalized. Sure, the place is a shit hole, but it should still be capitalized.
 
   #41  
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hedgehog

hedgehog

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Well, it seems that the trump administration is ramping shit up ready to have at Iran.

Ah well, it’s as good a distraction from the problems he’s currently facing, and Iran is a very convenient bogeyman.

Wag the dog anyone?
 
   #42  

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LONDON – The United States is playing a "very dangerous game" as it attempts to "drag Iran into an unnecessary war," a senior Iranian official said Tuesday.

Hamid Baeidinejad, Iran’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, said the Trump administration made a "serious miscalculation" in deploying an aircraft carrier strike group, B-52 bombers and other military personnel and equipment to the Persian Gulf to counter alleged, unspecified Iranian threats.

Baeidinejad denied that Iran or its "proxies" were behind what Washington described as the "sabotage" of oil tankers in the Gulf belonging to Saudi Arabia, Norway and the United Arab Emirates. Tuesday, Saudi Arabia said drones attacked one of its oil pipelines and other energy infrastructure, an incident that caused global oil price benchmarks to jump.

"We are prepared for any eventuality, this I can tell you," Baeidinejad said. The United States and Iran have no formal diplomatic channel of communication.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, said neither country wants a war.
"We're only here cuz Trump quit the deal and put Bolton in charge of Iran policy," Parsi tweeted.
:lol: YEP.

Sounds like lran's about ready to renegotiate that nuke deal, if you ask me. What happened to all the big "fuck you america" we always hear?
Hey dems... you don't think now's maybe a good time to deal with the border do ya? NO?? Ok... how about a war then? lol

Shout back when yer ready!

 
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   #43  

bowtie

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Indeed .. the USA is obviously instigating here .. no mind their threat to close the strait, and don't mind them blowing up a mocked up full size US aircraft carrier a couple years ago, yeah, they're a peaceful people ..
 
   #44  
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hedgehog

hedgehog

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Er......dunno if you are aware or not, but as trump gutted the deal and screwed it up, Iran is dropping one of the most important parts of the nuclear deal.

Basically, that is a big “fuck you” as there is no scope for any realistic negotiation with the current administration.
 
   #45  

CID

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My guess is that Iran's not gonna be the one dropping anything, but when Bolton's done negotiating with B52s, it won't matter. :lol:

The one major difference here between Bush Bolton and Trump Bolton being this -- Trump don't give a fuck about regime change like the stupid Texans did. He'll just wipe out that shit hole and what's left, the NEXT guy can deal with. But one thing will be for sure -- the straights WILL be open for business afterwards. And if they're not? (here's the 2nd thing) WE WILL BE THE ONES SELLING THE OIL NOW. Remember that global oil price drop a few years back? :fu:
 
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   #46  

BigHock

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I remember as kid growing up in the late ‘70’s, a large population of people with “Fuck Iran” stickers on their cars.

Well... so what’s different now? The US certainly did the Iranians a disservice, but those fuckers revolted to put a theocratic government in place.

So once again, is there any other proper response than, “Fuck Iran!”
 
   #48  

RobBase

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Well, it seems that the trump administration is ramping shit up ready to have at Iran.

Ah well, it’s as good a distraction from the problems he’s currently facing, and Iran is a very convenient bogeyman.

Wag the dog anyone?
What problems? He's got all these lefty dicksuckers and deep staters on the run. Maybe James Comey will be living incognito in Spain soon.
Also, I read that Spain is pulling their little frigate out of the gulf in case shit gets too hot for them/you.
 
   #50  
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hedgehog

hedgehog

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What problems? He's got all these lefty dicksuckers and deep staters on the run. Maybe James Comey will be living incognito in Spain soon.
Also, I read that Spain is pulling their little frigate out of the gulf in case shit gets too hot for them/you.
“I see no ships”

Really? Looks like the foreigner has been paying attention to what is going on in your country more than you have.......again!

And yes, Spain pulled their frigate out because basically it was no longer needed, and if trump is going to play silly buggers in the region, Spain wants no part in it.
 
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