China beats trumpy into submission

   #51  
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tinhead

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Butt Fuk the economy for now, it's time to button up the Concours and get ready for a vacation from the rigors of retirement in the Poconos. Real racecars only come up to my knees and don't use anything made from terrorist funding crude oil, alcohol and synthetic lubricants are the way! 'Murica!!!
 
   #52  

maui

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I think it's been eluded to already but I think Trump backed off the tariffs because he had knowledge of the Bond curve coming out negative and he was taking a preemptive shoring up of the market. Not that it really works that way, but that's what I think happened. I'd also say this puts the fed in a more likely position too cut rates again this year.
 
   #53  

gobrian77

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For the most part, I don't understand how anybody in the west can be opposed to this trade war
I'm not opposed to 'doing something'- I'm opposed to unilateral protectionist tariffs. They might have worked had Trump enlisted trading partners and allies like the EU, Canada, and Mexico to impose similar tariffs, but, instead, he decided to play the tough guy with them as well, alienating them and starting smaller-scale tariff wars. China was ALWAYS going to stand up to him- it's been their stance for decades in the face of tariffs, and they'd made presidents back off before by economically attacking their voter bases. The USA is a big part of their market, but it's not the only market, and they're too strong and diversified for us to do it alone.

I don't understand how anyone with any knowledge of recent history and the realization that Trump is facing a rough election year (and Xi isn't, and won't ever be) thought that the course of action Trump took was going to work. Now, when it's going to hurt him politically, he blinked- had he held fast in the face of possible falling popularity at home and insisted this was the right thing to do, I could respect his resolve if not his actions- that's not what happened- he now seems to have an, 'Oh shit- this is getting bad for me' stance.

Now, with the problems the markets are facing and a possible coming recession, he is no longer in a position to say, 'Fuck you, China!' like he was, and he'll have to negotiate from a much weaker spot. China saw this coming- it seems like he didn't, and never even allowed for the possibility.
 
   #54  
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^^^^^^^^^^^ Agree with much of this. Trump blinked and it will come back on him. He is not negotiating now from a position of strength so what we have is a controlled capitulation. Trump will do anything to get elected for another term! Don't believe me? Wait and see what he does on Gun Control!!

Hell I voted for him and will again have NO choice but in reality he is as Presidential as my pet Airedale as they say.
 
   #56  

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I'm not opposed to 'doing something'- I'm opposed to unilateral protectionist tariffs. They might have worked had Trump enlisted trading partners and allies like the EU, Canada, and Mexico to impose similar tariffs, but, instead, he decided to play the tough guy with them as well, alienating them and starting smaller-scale tariff wars. China was ALWAYS going to stand up to him- it's been their stance for decades in the face of tariffs, and they'd made presidents back off before by economically attacking their voter bases. The USA is a big part of their market, but it's not the only market, and they're too strong and diversified for us to do it alone.

I don't understand how anyone with any knowledge of recent history and the realization that Trump is facing a rough election year (and Xi isn't, and won't ever be) thought that the course of action Trump took was going to work. Now, when it's going to hurt him politically, he blinked- had he held fast in the face of possible falling popularity at home and insisted this was the right thing to do, I could respect his resolve if not his actions- that's not what happened- he now seems to have an, 'Oh shit- this is getting bad for me' stance.

Now, with the problems the markets are facing and a possible coming recession, he is no longer in a position to say, 'Fuck you, China!' like he was, and he'll have to negotiate from a much weaker spot. China saw this coming- it seems like he didn't, and never even allowed for the possibility.
China 'too strong and diversified for us to do it alone'

Once again we can agree to disagree.

Trump was neither naïve nor misinformed and weighed all the risks. There are an army of strategists working every angle. Could Trump have waited for a more opportune time? No, because there will never be a good time and it was time from the frog to jump out of the pot

Unilateral action was the only realistic option because our allies are too chicken shit to get onboard (except maybe Canada which is in a world of hurt having apprehended the Hauwei CFO on Iran embargo violation charge)

This trade war is probably the new norm and will go on long after Trump is gone. He may very well not see its conclusion. But markets will adjust after some pain and we will thrive. Capitalism is remarkable resourceful and resilient. Communism is neither
 
   #57  

gobrian77

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China 'too strong and diversified for us to do it alone'

Once again we can agree to disagree.

Trump was neither naïve nor misinformed and weighed all the risks. There are an army of strategists working every angle. Could Trump have waited for a more opportune time? No, because there will never be a good time and it was time from the frog to jump out of the pot

Unilateral action was the only realistic option because our allies are too chicken shit to get onboard (except maybe Canada which is in a world of hurt having apprehended the Hauwei CFO on Iran embargo violation charge)

This trade war is probably the new norm and will go on long after Trump is gone. He may very well not see its conclusion. But markets will adjust after some pain and we will thrive. Capitalism is remarkable resourceful and resilient. Communism is neither

I see your point, but I think what he attempted to do was doomed to fail.

Trump thought he could bully Xi like he bullied Canada, Mexico, and the EU- that was indeed 'naive' and 'misinformed'- Xi didn't give an inch, and showed he was more than willing to play the long game. There were many among that 'army of strategists' that predicted exactly what has so far happened, that this would come to the point where it wasn't politically expedient for Trump, and he'd back off- Trump didn't listen to them. Look at the BS reason he gave for delaying the tariffs- it's a 'Christmas gift' for US consumers...:roll: He's been saying for months that 'China is paying the tariffs' and that they're adding billions to the US coffers- wouldn't implementing the tariffs have been the 'Christmas gift'? He basically admitted who really pays the price (in the form of what is essentially a tax increase) after all.

As far as 'a more opportune time' goes, he should have waited until his second term (if he ends up getting one- he probably will, but this is something the Dem candidate is absolutely going to use against him, and likely with some effect)- he wouldn't have had to take the step back (based on worrying about losing support from his agricultural base) and had his position weakened, but he thought he was going to win the trade war easily and this would be a good thing to campaign upon- nope.

There never seemed to be a real 'end game'- it was all about trying to force China to the table in a weakened position where they'd agree to anything he wanted (he actually thought he could force the Chinese parliament to legislate laws that would be specifically favorable to the US)- so, why is he backing off? Inflicting damage has to have some purpose beyond a feeling of satisfaction or revenge when you're taking damage in return, otherwise it becomes the embodiment of 'cutting off your nose to spite your face.'

As always, I have a 'let's see what happens' attitude, but I think (since he started this tariff war, which I thought was a bad idea from the beginning, but if we're already in it) he should have held steadfast in his resolve to win it. Maybe he'll pick it back up again if he wins in 2020 (or perhaps he'll go ahead with the new tariffs in December as he said he would after delaying them from September 1st), but his actions this week will only have emboldened Xi to continue on the same course of tit-for-tat trading of blows rather than capitulating, imho- just waiting it out seems to be a viable strategy for him, especially with the current uncertainty in the markets, which makes a protracted trade war a much less palatable option for Trump.
 
   #58  

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but I think what he attempted to do was doomed to fail.

he should have waited

'cutting off your nose to spite your face.'

As always, I have a 'let's see what happens' attitude,
These are the exact attitudes that got us here in the first place.

Complacency is never a winning strategy. It might work in the short term, but at best, it's a survivalist mentality and Trump wasn't elected for his "survivalist" traits.
 
   #59  
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It's time for US manufacturers to stop investing in China and look elsewhere for the future. We created the problem, it's time to uncreate it.
 
   #60  

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These are the exact attitudes that got us here in the first place.

Complacency is never a winning strategy. It might work in the short term, but at best, it's a survivalist mentality and Trump wasn't elected for his "survivalist" traits.
Nice cherry-picking and completely missing the actual points I was making- what were you saying the other day about a 'straw man'? I never said anything about 'complacency' or not doing anything (in fact, I clearly stated that- if protectionist tariffs were the way Trump insisted on going- it should have been done bilaterally with our allies and trading partners instead of the USA taking the brunt of China's retaliatory moves). You know what else isn't a 'winning strategy'? Doing something that's already been shown not to work. I also said if he started it, he shouldn't have backed off because now he looks weak.

I predicted nearly 18 months ago when Trump first levied steel and aluminum tariffs that Xi wasn't going to cave (because it was obvious, imho), and I took a lot of grief over it- how'd it work out? Yup... Now suddenly Trump has realized that trade wars aren't 'easy to win' and, in fact, can fuck up his re-election bid, and he blinked.
 
   #62  

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Nice cherry-picking and completely missing the actual points I was making- what were you saying the other day about a 'straw man'? I never said anything about 'complacency' or not doing anything (in fact, I clearly stated that- if protectionist tariffs were the way Trump insisted on going- it should have been done bilaterally with our allies and trading partners instead of the USA taking the brunt of China's retaliatory moves). You know what else isn't a 'winning strategy'? Doing something that's already been shown not to work. I also said if he started it, he shouldn't have backed off because now he looks weak.

I predicted nearly 18 months ago when Trump first levied steel and aluminum tariffs that Xi wasn't going to cave (because it was obvious, imho), and I took a lot of grief over it- how'd it work out? Yup... Now suddenly Trump has realized that trade wars aren't 'easy to win' and, in fact, can fuck up his re-election bid, and he blinked.
Way to much wishie-washy consensus style leadership for my taste. :thumbdown:

You and Snail have the same thing going politically. The reason Snail didn't like Trump from the get go was that he saw Trump as a "unilateral" type person. Again.... in my straw man type of statement above -- That style of leadership is exactly WHY he got elected.

While it might not seem to work to people that love a U.N. type of world... one thing it IS doing -- it kicks the American public (and the rest of the world) in the ass and helps wake them up to what is going on and what needs to be done. He's not going to fix it, since this is a multi-generational thing, but he's sure as hell' getting the discussion going! :up:
 
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   #63  

gobrian77

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Way to much wishie-washy consensus style leadership for my taste. :thumbdown:

You and Snail have the same thing going politically. The reason Snail didn't like Trump from the get go was that he saw Trump as a "unilateral" type person. Again.... in my straw man type of statement above -- That style of leadership is exactly WHY he got elected.

While it might not seem to work, one thing IS doing -- it kicks the American public (and the rest of the world) in the ass and helps wake them up to what is going on and what needs to be done. He's not going to fix it, since this is a multi-generational thing, but he's sure as hell' getting the discussion going! :up:
Yeah, well, your protectionist 'taste' doesn't seem to be working, and the guy who wasn't elected for his 'survivalist traits' is sure showing those traits by backing off when it looks like this will hurt him more politically than he bargained for. And, while I have both agreements and disagreements with Snail's position (which you don't need to lump me in with- I've been clearly stating my own positions for years), I also live in a place where I've been seeing the effects of protectionist tariffs for 18 years- I know what it's like to live with them better than anyone else here, and I have a perspective on them that no one else here has (spoiler alert- they suck for consumers).

We've already had this argument- I know what you think, and you know what I think- I feel vindicated in my opinion by the fact that this is what I fully expected to happen.
 
   #64  

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Uh... I didn't mean to insult you by 'lumping' you in with Snail. I respect Snail very much AND his opinions. What I was trying to say is that your viewpoint of 'working with other countries --before-- this or that--' as the only winning way to do things has already been discussed at length and it's NOT why Trump was elected.

While you seem to be making the judgment of how things are working "today", as the standard, it's not a 'today' we win thing. This is something that has gone on for well over 30+ years now and it's something that will continue to go on unless we slam the door shut and get this ball rolling.

I also think that when you say that you're the only one that has a perspective on any one given viewpoint (effects of protectionist tariffs ) is a bit .. well... I'll leave it there. I respect your viewpoints as well.
 
   #65  

gobrian77

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Uh... I didn't mean to insult you by 'lumping' you in with Snail. I respect Snail very much AND his opinions. What I was trying to say is that your viewpoint of 'working with other countries --before-- this or that--' as the only winning way to do things has already been discussed at length and it's NOT why Trump was elected.

While you seem to be making the judgment of how things are working "today", as the standard, it's not a 'today' we win thing. This is something that has gone on for well over 30+ years now and it's something that will continue to go on unless we slam the door shut and get this ball rolling.

I also think that when you say that you're the only one that has a perspective on any one given viewpoint is a bit .. well... I'll leave it there. I respect your viewpoints as well.
Who else here lives in a place with high protectionist tariffs? I think I'm the only one, and that gives me a perspective no one else here has. There may be others, but I don't think so. It a big reason why I'm against tariffs- I've lived with them for a long time.

Trump can't stand the heat of doing this long-term- W. couldn't do it with the steel/aluminum tariffs he imposed- likewise Obama with his tire tariffs. If you can't take the political hits, and end up caving, where's the incentive for China to give in? Even if Trump does go further with tariffs or other economic sanctions at a later date or a possible second term, what's the incentive for Xi to do anything other than wait it out? Xi doesn't have to worry about an election ever- he doesn't have to give a shit about votes. The Chinese have to take it- Americans have options every four years.

Trump's taking a step back and giving ground is exactly what he WASN'T elected to do, but he did it.

As far as Snail goes, I respect him a lot as well, but, unfortunately, many people here don't, and by saying we're the same, it colors my opinion by association and might cause it to be automatically dismissed- how you might look at it doesn't matter as far as the collective goes.
 
   #66  
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Trumps trade war has actually had a more negative effect on the Chinese economy than vice versa.
 
   #67  

gobrian77

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Trumps trade war has actually had a more negative effect on the Chinese economy than vice versa.
Yes it has, but Xi can withstand the hits way better than Trump can- it's why he hasn't backed off an inch- he has no worries about holding his position of power- Trump is desperate for a second term, and can't let the economy slide or he's in serious jeopardy.

Again, this is why I said Trump 'should have waited' until his second term to ratchet up the trade war.
 
   #68  

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Who else here lives in a place with high protectionist tariffs? I think I'm the only one, and that gives me a perspective no one else here has. There may be others, but I don't think so. It a big reason why I'm against tariffs- I've lived with them for a long time.
I don't have your history or viewpoint, so I'm all ears -- Gimme your details on why tariffs are bad. I know they fucked over Snail and understand his viewpoint, what have they done to you?

As far as Snail goes, I respect him a lot as well, but, unfortunately, many people here don't, and by saying we're the same, it colors my opinion by association and might cause it to be automatically dismissed- how you might look at it doesn't matter as far as the collective goes.
Understood, ...won't happen again.
 
   #69  

gobrian77

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I've gone over it in detail in other threads- no offense, but I'm really not inclined to do it again- in a nutshell, prices for domestically-produced products go up as there's no inexpensive foreign competition (due to tariffs), and quality goes down (again, lack of competition). Higher-end imports end up being insanely expensive as they're brought in in lower numbers at fewer outlets. Snail's issue was as a producer and exporter, which is completely different from my perspective as a consumer.

I'll try to find a link to some of my previous posts.
 
   #70  

CID

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Don't worry about the links your summary is good enough...

in a nutshell, prices for domestically-produced products go up as there's no inexpensive foreign competition .....
.....my perspective as a consumer. ....Snail's issue was as a producer and exporter
Isn't that what this is all about int he first place? We 'consumers' of foreign products have been living on cheap prices and the producers that produce JOBS locally have been thrown out of market because of it.

Free trade isn't free trade when your 'trade partner' isn't being free or fair about things. So to fix that we all take a bite of shit, until a FAIR deal on trade is made and that's what this 'war' is all about.
 
   #71  

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Yes, but to a point- domestic manufacturers always take advantage of tariffs to raise their prices in the absence of foreign competition- as a consumer, your choices decrease, and your prices go up. If prices go up, consumer spending decreases, and that accounts for 75% of the economy, which will contract due to lower spending, which means recession and job losses. Look at the current employment numbers- they seem pretty good to me, and they've been improving monthly for the last ~8 years, long before the trade war started.

The potential negatives are why Trump backed off.

It's not as simple as A+B=C.

This doesn't even touch on the loss of the massive US export markets that depend on China- a huge number of people in agriculture alone work on export-only crops.
 
   #72  

gobrian77

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I can't find my previous posts- I think they were in a thread Snail deleted.
 
   #73  

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No problem on the links -- I get it.

There's no argument that he backed off for the reasons you stated. That's war. Scout enemy, test the defense, make a plan. Nobody's saying he's got some magical wand of power to right things in a day. he's only got , at best 8 years to do anything. Like his Immigration "plan" .... throw a grenade -- make a deal.

The last 30 years of Bush and Clinton globalism deals have gotten us near negative bond rates, trillions in debt and a loss of manufacturing jobs on a crazy scale. (obama in that mix was just a political patsy for bad past deeds and focused on local social spending)

Today's job market is based on a 'feeling' of good next day outcome, but nothing lasts forever and now he's thinking LONG TERM Chinese style. What Trump is trying to get across to everybody is that these deals we've been getting over the last 30+ are shitty and let's stop fooling around. We've got a great market, lets get this done. You say he should have waited -- I say he should have done it sooner. We ALL should have done this sooner. Pain now or pain later -- later is always MORE painful.
 
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   #74  

gobrian77

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I'm not arguing as to why the current situation exists.

And I stand by my 'he should have waited' point- the reason he's backing off now is because he's worried about it hurting his re-election chances- if he had waited and cruised into a second term and then imposed tariffs, he wouldn't have had to back off as he'd have been a 'lame duck' and re-election wouldn't have been a concern- now he's shown weakness that's only going to embolden China, which, imho, was worse than having done nothing at all.

He's not thinking 'long-term'- he's thinking about November 2020.

It's getting late here- that's it for me tonight.
 
   #75  

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I stand by my 'he should have waited' point- the reason he's backing off now is because he's worried about it hurting his re-election chances- if he had waited and cruised into a second term and then imposed tariffs, he wouldn't have had to back off as he'd have been a 'lame duck' and re-election wouldn't have been a concern- now he's shown weakness that's only going to embolden China, which, imho, was worse than having done nothing at all.

He's not thinking 'long-term'- he's thinking about November 2020.
Points ...I can't argue. :up::up:

I think a market correction has been coming and his timing is a bit off (why I say he should have done this sooner) -- now whether or not he's putting pressure (good or bad) on that correction's timing is a debatable issue, but I have no doubt that the market's change and sudden drop makes him think twice about doing this during an election cycle. {cough} Christmas shopping time, I mean. :razz::lol:
 
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   #76  

gobrian77

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Good debating with you- we may not agree with each other, but at least we understand each other.:wink2:
 
   #77  
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Thanks Brian. You are 100% spot on. Their type of government allows their leaders far more freedom (isn't that an oxymoron) in withstanding any scrutiny, etc. "We own you, the media, the bank, everthing!".
 
   #82  

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Good to see you Snail. Stick around if you've got the time.
 
   #83  

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He's got just enough time to make a few "I told you so" sammies, no doubt. :lol:
 
   #84  

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:razz: I'm,,,,,,,,,, good :up:

:yahoo: Gold n' silver,,,,,,,,,,,,, :inlove1a:

go UP,,,,,,,,,,, in a recession... :D
 
   #85  
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It's time for US manufacturers to stop investing in China and look elsewhere for the future. We created the problem, it's time to uncreate it.
Of all the posts on this thread this one hits it on the head for the most part. China is one of the biggest global players now we all know BUT much of their product comes from US PROVIDED IP that runs equipment to setting up factories ALL with little overhead or capitol needed provided by US manufacturers years ago! Over the last 20 years the Demoncrats just let China continue to wave the carrot in front of short term profits for US Manufacturing being the greedy whores we are gobbled them up like twinkies. These IDIOTS DO NOT PLAY even remotely to the same rules we do here and in fact most of the world. China is much better positioned to endure a long trade war with the US because unlike here people will boo hoo and cry (justifiably so) and vote out the offending horrible man or woman who is doing the right thing in the long run. China does not worry about that..... As a result they can wait out any US response because they absolutely 100% know Americans Have No Stomach For This Kind Of Thing.

If we do not do what it takes now with China they will surpass and leave the US in the dust because they have the financial advantage they have NO RULES!! Economic, Social or Environmental period...
 
   #86  

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I see your point, but I think what he attempted to do was doomed to fail.

Trump thought he could bully Xi like he bullied Canada, Mexico, and the EU- that was indeed 'naive' and 'misinformed'- Xi didn't give an inch, and showed he was more than willing to play the long game. There were many among that 'army of strategists' that predicted exactly what has so far happened, that this would come to the point where it wasn't politically expedient for Trump, and he'd back off- Trump didn't listen to them. Look at the BS reason he gave for delaying the tariffs- it's a 'Christmas gift' for US consumers...:roll: He's been saying for months that 'China is paying the tariffs' and that they're adding billions to the US coffers- wouldn't implementing the tariffs have been the 'Christmas gift'? He basically admitted who really pays the price (in the form of what is essentially a tax increase) after all.

As far as 'a more opportune time' goes, he should have waited until his second term (if he ends up getting one- he probably will, but this is something the Dem candidate is absolutely going to use against him, and likely with some effect)- he wouldn't have had to take the step back (based on worrying about losing support from his agricultural base) and had his position weakened, but he thought he was going to win the trade war easily and this would be a good thing to campaign upon- nope.

There never seemed to be a real 'end game'- it was all about trying to force China to the table in a weakened position where they'd agree to anything he wanted (he actually thought he could force the Chinese parliament to legislate laws that would be specifically favorable to the US)- so, why is he backing off? Inflicting damage has to have some purpose beyond a feeling of satisfaction or revenge when you're taking damage in return, otherwise it becomes the embodiment of 'cutting off your nose to spite your face.'

As always, I have a 'let's see what happens' attitude, but I think (since he started this tariff war, which I thought was a bad idea from the beginning, but if we're already in it) he should have held steadfast in his resolve to win it. Maybe he'll pick it back up again if he wins in 2020 (or perhaps he'll go ahead with the new tariffs in December as he said he would after delaying them from September 1st), but his actions this week will only have emboldened Xi to continue on the same course of tit-for-tat trading of blows rather than capitulating, imho- just waiting it out seems to be a viable strategy for him, especially with the current uncertainty in the markets, which makes a protracted trade war a much less palatable option for Trump.
Look, you see my point, I see your point

Am I being partisan? Nope. As a counter example, I defended the Obama record as a stellar one repeatedly here and took heat for it

Obama's Farwell speech, Good bye Loser, thank god you will not be missed

That's just one example of many

<edit>good lord, it appears I even got an endorsement from anal feltcher on that thread </edit>

I've always said I'm in it for the money, along the lines of 'bulls make money, bears make money, hogs get slaughtered'




"it was all about trying to force China to the table in a weakened position"

Because that's the America that I knew and loved

America is back baby, with balls
 
   #88  

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...you can't win this argument with tinhead...

...if Trump had stayed frim on the issue tinhead would have said that was bad...

...since he compromised in the face of public interest he is "beaten into submission"...LoL...
 
   #91  

gobrian77

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Of course they do- they want the trade war to end. They've expressed willingness to negotiate from day one, but not according to Trump's terms. I watched the entire news conference- for the first time, Trump said the deal is going to be terrific for the US and China- before, he always said it was going to be completely to the advantage of the US. Also, trade talks had already been scheduled for September (before Trump's G7 announcement), so I'm not sure what's different now (though of course taking about it positively at the news conference reversed the DOW futures from negative to positive, which is good for investors).

Trump needs this trade war to end now to protect the economy and his re-election chances- I'm sure there are certain demands he's going to take off the table as a means to that end. That said, we've heard this story before- Xi went from 'great friend' to 'enemy' and back again in the span of two days- let's see what happens, but I have the feeling it's not going to be the unilateral win Trump has been going for (if a deal is announced at all). There's no way Xi is giving in unless Trump agrees to a softer line.

Could it finally be done? Sure, but this is the third or fourth time that's been said... The Chinese were telling a bit of a different story afterwards- Trump on China trade: President Donald Trump says Chinese called US trade reps twice as Beijing seeks to "make a deal" today - CBS News
 
   #94  
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Somebody is lying about those phone calls that were supposedly made over the weekend. Not saying it was trump but he is the one with history of such things. Don't declare a "win" yet. I guess winning this trade war is about like "winning" at your divorce though, it just feels real good when it's finally over. Fox really puts a positive spin on things though, and I can appreciate their sunshine and puppies approach at the news.

Trump on trade war: China wants to negotiate and we will be 'getting back to the table'
 
   #97  
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Trade wars seem about like any other war, citizens suffer while the masters pull the levers and act as if they have nothing to lose. Trump most definitely has something to lose.
Millions of people already think something bad has happened to this country. Too late for wishing or "I told you so"
 
   #99  

Austin_F

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I never wished for millions of people to lose their jobs and savings.
 
   #100  
Joined
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Alleged Easy Street
:roll:

I never wished for millions of people to lose their jobs and savings.
So if that is what happens, will you be more upset with the people saying "I told you so" or the person responsible for the fiscal policies that accelerated and exacerbated the coming recession?
 
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